therealdeal Hockey

Resurrection

2008-10-30T19:00:00.005-06:00

About a year ago today Patrice Bergeron was nailed from behind by Randy Jones. He really didn't play again until this preseason.

Bergeron has been a bit of a favorite player of mine, playing on a line with Sidney Crosby on two occasions for Team Canada; the 2005 World Juniors (the dream team, I believe Cory Perry was the third man on that line) and in the 2006 World Championship Team (Brad Boyes was the extra man there).

Bergeron already has quite a few honours in his career: He was the first player ever to win a World Championship gold medal before winning a World Junior Championship gold, he was the tournament MVP for the juniors in 2005, and I'm almost certain that at one point he was the youngest player in the NHL (although I could be wrong here). One of my favourite Bergeron moments comes from 2005 when Ovechkin went to take Bergeron out with a solid check; Bergeron braced himself and hit back (Torres/Phaneuf style) and ended up injuring Ovechkin, taking him out of the game permanently. Pretty impressive.

The good news is that Bergeron is still impressive, really impressive. I was checking up on his desjardins today, and although the sample size is small, Bergeron looks like he's a difference maker.

Quality of Comp: 0.14 (7th)
Quality of Teammates: 0.35 (2nd)
PTS/60: 2.01(5th)
GFON/60: 3.51 (4th)
GAON/60 : 1.51 (9th)
Difference: 2 (4th)

And in regards to the difference, only one player above Bergeron (Sturm) was playing a higher competition - without looking at shift charts I'd guess the two are playing together and are driving each other's pleasant results. (As a side note, Andrew Ference is one of the three ahead of Bergeron in the difference category).

One also has to imagine that Bergeron results would be better if he didn't have a 3.33% shooting percentage. For all those that believe the extreme will tend back to the average over time, Bergeron is due for some god damn goals like Edmonton is due for snow. His NHL average shooting percentage is just above 10%.

Update: Well, it looks like Patrice is back on the scoreboard.

L-OIL-ty

2008-10-23T00:38:00.004-06:00

No doubt I'm late to the party here regarding the whole Oilers/Blogging gong show (for more details check out these two posts or click on any of the fine Oilers blogs on my sidebar) but I must say I had a few general thoughts that haven't totally been covered.

Obviously the whole morality of the incident has been discussed ad nauseum but what's really sad is this horrible feeling of cognitive dissonance that has slaped us all in the face. The bottom line is that I (and probably anyone that bothers to read this amateur's writing) is a pretty big hockey fan. I love hockey in just about all instances - road hockey, shinny, league games, out door rink, on rollerblades, hell, I've even watched some sled hockey and while I hate the sport I've even watched field hockey, because really, who among us can resist watching girls running around in short skirts waving giant sticks and chasing balls?

Hockey is fantastic.

I'm very passionate about the game, and while I'm not the type of guy who goes to a game and starts chanting, I wanted to cry watching two game sevens in two years and losing both of them. I love the Oilers, I love the Flames, and I really love watching Canada.

But there are just some ugly things about the game that are hard to ignore.

The lockout pissed me off to no end. I know a lot of people felt that the owners pleading for a system that made them more money was an insult, but I can't imagine the players themselves could have looked any worse. Day after day we had to listen to Glen Healy and Nick Kypreos make absolutely inane comments about the labour stoppage which at best were idiotic and at worst offensive. Even Jarome Iginla, Mr. All Canadian, the most honest to goodness 'aw shucks' guy that has possibly ever played the game, said something during the lockout that just made me think 'shut the fuck up Jarome.'

It's hard to cheer for someone that presents themselves in such a bad light.

I'm actually a little surprised Flames fans aren't experiencing a little dissonance themselves. Way back when Bertuzzi pounded Moore's brains out, almost literally, I had some mixed feelings. Obviously what Bertuzzi did is pretty indefensible, but I tended to feel that there was some unfortunate circumstances; I've seen a whole lot of really dangerous plays in which someone probably should have been hurt, but for whatever reason, they escaped unscathed. Bertuzzi wasn't the worst one I've seen, it just had the worst result.

For that, rightly or wrongly (I'm not here to judge) Bertuzzi was crucified - none more so than by Flames fans. The pure hatred by Flames fans that I've talked to over the years, as well as the chorus of boos inflicted on Bertuzzi at the 'dome is proof positive of Calgary's general disgust for Bertuzzi. But what's this?

Bertuzzi is now playing arguably the best hockey since the Moore 'incident' and Flames fans have not exactly bit their tongue at his success. The level of embracement of Bertuzzi cannot be overstated, and there's really only one reason - he's helping the Flames win.

I am being a bit unfair here lumping all Flames fans together - I know Kent has taken a fairly dispassionate approach at evaluating Bertuzzi's affect on the game.

In the same sense though I too am just as guilty as Flames fans of the same crime. I have to ignore or forget that lockout and the things that transpired if I am to enjoy the game. Hopefully one day Dave at CinO can forget what was done to him as well so he can go back to enjoying the game. And it is a great fucking game.

Oh, and sorry for the title of this post.

I Saw Alexandre Despatie Last Night

2008-10-12T19:36:00.005-06:00

After watching Bertuzzi for a couple games I've truly come to believe that he has been targeted by the refs. While in the overall scheme of karma that makes a lot of sense it also as a principle doesn't really work. Bertuzzi may have been guilty of a very legitimate penalty several years ago but that doesn't mean that he's guilty of some other act.

This point brings me to last night. You can check the play over at CiO (i couldn't find the clip at youtube and I don't know how to steal mikew's great work at saving and uploading that file) and while I think Bertuzzi walked a fine line there I don't think he did anything other than compete for the puck and actually let up a bit at the end.

Johnson on the other hand defies many laws of physics that would be implied with a forward momentum push and drops as if he has literally been shot in the back.

I'm not one of those people who can't reconcile two penalties (the initial call + the dive call) in one play - just because a player dives doesn't mean the initial infraction never happened, so I could've lived with a boarding penalty to Bertuzzi if the unsportsmanlike call had gone against Ryan Johnson.

I'm not going to blame the referee here; it's a fast game. The ref sees 'BERTUZZI' stalking a guy going to the corner, the guy goes flying pretty close to the boards and he looks hurt - it's going to happen.

What I do see as disappointing, is as far as I can tell, there is not going to be any formal review of the issue by the NHL. I want to be very clear about this; I am not a bitter fan railing against losing the game, this call perhaps didn't even affect the outcome. I am just a disappointed fan who hates to see diving, regardless of the perpetrator. Ryan Johnson serves as an example only.

Here, via the NHL website, is the rule on diving:

Rule 64 - Diving / Embellishment
64.1 Diving / Embellishment – Any player or goalkeeper who blatantly dives, embellishes a fall or a reaction, or who feigns an injury shall be penalized with a minor penalty under this rule.

A goalkeeper who deliberately initiates contact with an attacking player other than to establish position in the crease, or who otherwise acts to create the appearance of other than incidental contact with an attacking player, is subject to the assessment of a minor penalty for diving / embellishment.

64.2 Minor Penalty - A minor penalty shall be imposed on a player or goalkeeper who attempts to draw a penalty by his actions (“diving / embellishment”).

64.3 Fines and Suspensions - Regardless if a minor penalty for diving / embellishment is called, Hockey Operations will review game videos and assess fines to players or goalkeepers who dive or embellish a fall or a reaction, or who feign injury. See also Rule 29 – Supplementary Discipline. The call on the ice by the Referee is totally independent of supplementary discipline.

The first such incident during the season will result in a warning letter being sent to the player or goalkeeper. The second such incident will result in a one thousand dollar ($1,000) fine. For a third such incident in the season, the player shall be suspended for one game, pending a telephone conversation with the Director of Hockey Operations. For subsequent violations in the same season, the player’s suspension shall double (i.e. first suspension – one game, second suspension – two games, third suspension – four games, etc.) See also Rule 29 – Supplementary Discipline. (Source)

I think we can clearly establish that Johnson violated Rule 64.1 yet escaped on ice punishment. However, we can see that whether the on-ice officials called a dive or not they are eligible for review by Hockey Operations. So while I cannot place a high level of culpability on the on ice officials, I certainly can do so to Hockey Operations; I don't think there's any other way to say this other than stating 'if this play is not reviewed they clearly aren't doing their job.'

Another issue I have with Rule 64.1 is the harshness of the penalty. First offence is a letter, second offence is a $1000 fine, third is a one game suspension. If that doesn't sound like a joke to you then you must be humourless. On the off chance Hockey Operations reviews the play, and decides it was a dive, they have to do that 2 more times for there to be any in game consequences.

Here's my proposition: For any infraction, first, third, eighteenth, the player receives a one game suspension.

The one game suspension though will not be much of a deterrent; you give Ryan Johnson a one game suspension and how much are the Canucks going to miss him?

For a while the league had some sort of Scarlett letter diving thing, but as far as I can tell that plan fell to the wayside.

If it were up to me I would not simply fine the player, I would fine every member of the team, including coaches. They would all be fined at the nominal fee of $1000 which means that it wouldn't really be hurting their pocketbooks all that much, but it would create an extra incentive to not be hated by your team - it makes the whole organization accountable for the transgression of each individual player. It would hopefully create a self policing system between players. The team should be embarrassed when one of their players embellishes to such an obvious extent.

You might argue that in cases where Hockey Operations gets it wrong upon review, this is an overly harsh punishment, but I would bet the psychological effect of being wrongfully prosecuted (persecuted) would actually have a positive fortifying effect on the team.

Is there something I'm missing here?

Warrenergate

2008-10-09T18:17:00.006-06:00

I touched on the subject during the summer, but once again Sutter has brought himself under fire thanks to his mismanagement of Warrenergate.

There was an anonymous commenter over at Kent's yesterday who in my opinion was either: a) an idiot, b) didn't understand the real issue or c) both.

Now it seems to me his/her position was that Kent et. al had no room to rant because they didn't know the whole story, and there was probably some sort of insider information that was the key variable (they then mocked Kent for not being an insider, which he never claimed to be anyway, SWEET!).

They also then commented that Boyd was going to play tonight anyway, so what was the difference?

I'll handle the second point first because it's the simplest to address. The anger wasn't so much because Boyd was sent to QC, it was because it wasn't a hockey decision. By all rights Boyd deserved to be on the team; he's had a great preseason, he was ok last year and he has a great pedigree.

Now onto the first point. Was there some invisible but still legitimate reason Boyd didn't make the team? Well, it was invisible only in the sense it was such a subtle and long process that most people aren't exactly putting the puzzle pieces together. Was it legitimate? Well, that depends on how you look at things; we KNOW it wasn't a hockey decision in the sense that worse players than Boyd made the team instead of Boyd, but it was a hockey decision in the sense that the Flames wouldn't have been able to play because they were above the cap and therefore wouldn't have been able to play (actually, I don't really know the penalty for being over the cap, anyone want to enlighten me?).

Let's recap the (relevant) events leading up to this incident:

Jun 28, 2007: Primeau signed to three year contract

Ok, first of all, the only thing that can be reasonably said to that is 'what the fuck?' It's not that Primeau is terrible, because he's mostly just bad, and it's not like his contract pay rate is so bad either, but why a three year term? Was it really necessary to get Primeau 'locked up' in the sense that he was such a desired player we didn't want him testing the market for fear of losing him? Could the Flames have not just signed him to a one year deal and then evaluated their coffers the next summer and if they were really desperate for centers resign him at that time?

5 Jul 2007 - Eriksson signs two year contract

The next event is slightly related to an even I've left off the list because it's like a negative event in that something didn't happen when it should have, but this signing was made 'necessary' because the Flames decided not to sign Giordano (Giordano was ahead of the fans as Matt notes here). But again, why did the Flames sign this guy to a two year deal? He was a minor role player in one of Detroit's cup wins, played in the RSL for a while, then apparently he's proved he can play in the NHL so much so that Sutter put two year's worth of faith in him? I mean, Sutter partly solved this little problem by hiding it in the AHL but it's just such a bizarre long shot asset management move that you have to think a lot would have had to go right for it to pay off.

Jul 1, 2008: Prust signed to one way contract

Another head scratcher. What had Prust done that had him deserving of a one way contract? I'm not going to go into it because you can't prove a negative but I'm welcome to someone challenging my point.

Jul 2, 2008: Vandermeer signed to three year contract

I think Flames management at least got an appreciation of what Vandermeer brings to the table, but I would say what he brings most of the time is 'toughness' and inconsistency. His first few games in Calgary I would say he was pretty effective, but by playoff time Keenan was utilizing him as a 13th forward. Utility forward/defenceman aren't exactly the most sought after commodity on the hockey market so one has to wonder why that while the coach wasn't really too interested in Vandermeer's skill set the GM was. And interested in it for 3 freaking years. And remember, this is a guy who was traded to Philadelphia last year who took a 1/3 of a season peek at him and decided to pass, and they're not exactly drowning in veteran NHL defenders there...

Jul 20, 2008:Andre Roy signed to contract

This is probably the most perplexing and infuriating move of them all. The Flames finally let Godard go, and then they pick up Roy. I'm not nearly as against the enforcer as is say, Kent, but why? Who is he even protecting on this team? Everyone on the Flames is a fighter. Iginla will fight. Langkow will fight. Regehr, Sarich, Vandermeer, Phaneuf, Primeau, Bertuzzi (watch out for his hook!) etc. etc. It's not even like the Flames are the Oilers with a bunch of undersized kids - this is pretty much a veteran roster, at least all the key components are. This is pretty much a complete waste of money and roster space.

All summer: not unloading Warrener

I mean, this has been discussed ad naseum but I have to say; Warrener is injured. There is no doubt. But he's been playing injured for at least a year, probably closer to two. The man just looks fragile out there, and although he's got the heart of a lion his body is just clearly unwilling. But he is no more injured today than he was on his last preseason game, and he's probably healthier than he's been other times he's played. My guess is that the LTIR move is simply so that he doesn't have to spend the remainder of his hockey days riding a bus in QC. But really, the simple and smart solution would have been to just buy Warrener out. That way he's totally off the books, doesn't have to play in QC; I mean, is being told your body is so messed that you're no longer of use to the team any more humiliating than being bought out? Is this really about Warrener's ego?

So was there a key variable that I, as a fan, missed that was the reason Boyd was sent to the QC (for a day). Not at all - the reason was lack of smart planning by the GM. Hell, I didn't even assault Sutter for not unloading Aucoin or trading for Aucoin, because at least those moves are moderately defendable.

I have to say, Sutter has his strengths, but this whole incident just makes him look dumb or at least overly and stupidly sentimental.

World of Captains, Ship of Fools

2008-10-07T21:17:00.009-06:00

after this mission it will let you go
help you to forget everything and everyone you know
in a world of captains baby, ship of fools
don't you know they're lying when they're telling you it's been all right?

Once again I'm stealing from LT, but it's both an easy an appropriate segway into the subject matter. The lyric by the way is from Near Fantastica from Matthew Good's first solo album Avalanche. This picture of Good is definately before his solo days, I'd put it around 1999 and he's holding one of the most beautiful guitars in the world, a Gibson ES-335 I'd say.

The point of the lyric in this context is thus: Expectations this season for the Edmonton Oilers are about as high as I've seen them in the last 10-15 years, besides from maybe 05-06. Everyone seems to think this is the year, and I think it's at least a somewhat reasonable proposition; the Oilers have some legitimate prospects (Gilbert, Gagner, Cogliano, Nilsson, Grebeshkov, Brodziak) who made real strides near the end of last season, they have a mobile defensive group and a goalie who seems poised to lead.

Expectations probably explain why MacTavish still has a job with the Oilers-this small market franchise with it's limited resources has really only been expected to compete once, and that year MacTavish delivered.

MacTavish has also probably been helped by the fact his good friend Kevin Lowe has been the one evaluating his competency - not saying MacTavish has ever deserved to be fired up until this point but I think lesser GMs would probably have done away with him some time ago - after all, coach is a very time sensitive job.

Here are IMO some of the top reasons fans should be wary about the upcoming Edmonton Oiler season. Bare in mind I am not the only person voicing these concerns but I don't think I've seen them all consolidated in one place as of yet.

1. Garon's Play and Shootout Victories

I think it would be hard to argue Garon didn't have a great season last year, but the question is, can he keep it up? His NHL experience beyond last year was pretty limited - 60 wins and 56 losses over a span of 7 seasons. That included a couple seasons of backup in Montreal with not great .884 SV%, an AHL demotion and then recall for more backup duty the following couple of seasons with Montreal with an outstanding .931 SV%.

Two uneven season in LA with a .901SV% and, impressively, held a winning record, 44 wins and
36 losses.

Last year Garon had 26 wins and 18 losses, although it has to be noted he had 10 shootout wins and stopped 30 of 32 shootout shots.

Garon has a lot of question marks around him; one or two seasons does not a number 1 goalie make. That said, I think Garon is very much worth a gamble; we didn't see a lot of holes in his game last season, but we have to expect him to come back towards the middle of the bell curve. MC79 had a terrific post up just the other day.

The better places on that list have some starrier names. If I was a betting man - and I’m not - my guess for Garon would be pretty close to league average, as opposed to last year, whereas his scaled save percentage for last year was .914. I have a hard time seeing how the Oilers make the playoffs with that, no matter what that knob/idiot Mirtle says. (Source)

I think it's unreasonable to think that Garon will have a similar shootout record this year. I think it will be hard for anyone to ever beat 30 for 32 in a season ever again - that's a mark that we could see stand for many years to come.

The Oilers need regulation wins this year; they will not be as successful this year once time expires.

2. Development Trends

People have this idea in their head that player development is a steady curve, but it's not, at least not always. Some players figure shoot above the curve and they look great short term but end up mediocre long term (look at Angelo Esposito's Jr. records for instance, although he's a very short term example of what I'm talking about). Some players start slow and play uneven hockey year after year until something clicks.

I think Oilers fans have to prepare themselves for the likelihood that one or all of Gagner, Cogliano, Nilsson, Brodziak, Gilbert and Grebeshkov will take a step back for part or all of the year. The glare of the spotlight will be on them this year, and so will the burden of expectations, and rather than having a reduced or more sheltered workload, they will have an increased and heavier workload.

3. The Stoll/Reasoner Workload

I keep referring back to this post by Jonathan which was based on some great work by VF. It shows how heavily MacT relied on Stoll and Reasoner for defensive zone coverage. While Hemsky is the remaining Oiler from 07-08 who played the top competition, it was Stoll and Reasoner who were ranked 1 and 3 last year respectively. And while Hemsky got to play with top quality linemates, Stoll and reasoner were pretty much given the bottom of the rung.

Now somebody has to take over that workload.

Now I'm not saying Stoll or Reasoner did a particularly great job last year; much of the time they got eaten alive. But while they were taking their lumps they were opening up holes for the rest of the roster, holes of opportunity for the likes of Cogliano, Gagner and Nilsson.

Now someone has to pick up the slack, and I'm not sure on this roster who has the horses to do it.

Brodziak and Pouliot are being nominated as centers for the job from various sources, as well as the possibility of Pisani, Cole or Penner on the wings. This is going to be a wild and possibly disasterous experiment.

It might not be worse than Stoll and Reasoner, but I think it's reasonable to think it could go pretty wrong.

4. Healthy Horses
A lot of this year's plans are built around guys with questionable health. Sheldon Souray has historically not been the type of player to lace them up for all 82 games; nor has Hemsky. Eric Cole seems to miss around 15 games a season, and let's not even get into poor Ethan Moreau's last couple of seasons.

I don't necessarily think these guys are the most worrisome of the group - I tend to have this belief that all players get injured eventually. That is, I think we can expect someone unexpected (that is some clumsy phrasing, sorry folks) to get injured. If that's Horcoff or Garon, god help this team.

---

It's not really a bold prediction to say a coach might be fired, but I really think the chips are stacking up against MacTavish this year. He has to deliver on this mission or they'll let him go.

Andrew Cogliano

2008-10-03T18:47:00.005-06:00

Andrew Cogliano first came to my attention during Coaches' Corner (see, Don Cherry still does in fact have a purpose) while Grapes was bemoaning the fact the Toronto Maple Leafs skipped over the Ontario native for some 'foreign goalie.' He was partly ignorant by slagging Tuukka Rask who went on to have two stellar World Junior Hockey Championships, but he was also pretty much correct because Toronto traded Rask for Andrew Raycroft, and then of course Rask's first win came against Toronto a couple of years later. Oh, and it turned out Andrew Cogliano is a pretty damn good hockey player.

Cogliano was known as a somewhat offensive guy in the minor ranks and I'll never forget his lack of offence for Canada in those World Juniors. He kept getting top line minutes, tons of minutes and chances ad infinitum, and last but not least, a top gear that was unmatched. The comp that kept coming to my mind was Todd Marchant. Great sense, great wheels, no finish. Turns out that prediction, at least for Cogliano's rookie season, was only 2/3s right.

There's no denying Cogliano had a stellar rookie season, and I think in most seasons it would have been at least Calder nomination worthy. Toews, Kane, Backstrom, Gagner, Price and Cogliano were all probably nomination worthy, but Cogliano isn't flashy like Backstrom and Kane and he wasn't a national hero like Toews, doesn't have the raw talent of Gagner or Backstrom.

There's no denying Cogliano was sheltered by MacTavish last year. He didn't play against high level competition (although he didn't have high level linemates) but somehow he found a way to put the puck in the net - a lot.

All his offensive stats are incredible for a rookie G/60, PTS/60, GFON/60.
His defensive stats, not so awe inspiring. Not surprising for a rookie though.

A couple words of caution though for Cogliano's upcoming season: like Jordan Staal who had an awesome first year offensively, Cogliano has a sky high and possibly unattainable shooting percentage. His shooting percentage was 18.37% last year, while say Iginla averages about 15% on a good year. Staal had a 22% on his first year, while about 7% during his second. Now Cogliano actually has a history of a high shooting percentage with a 26.97% shooting percentage in his final college year. Some in the Oilogosphere have argued Cogliano is predisposed to a high shooting percentage because of the sorts of high quality chances he creates with his speed - whether that's true or not will probably be determined this year.

Another word of caution - with Reasoner and Stoll gone, Cogliano will most likely have to play tougher minutes. If that happens, I think it's fair to say that treading water is probably progress.

Projection: 2nd line
Key Stat: 3rd overall GFON/60

Craig Conroy

2008-10-02T21:29:00.004-06:00

07-08 Projection:

Left the team after FA negotiations with Darryl Sutter fell apart in the summer of ’04, but seems ecstatic to be back. Was inconsistent in his return with the Flames in the spring, occasionally taking bad penalties. Either he has good chemistry with Iginla, or Iginla is so good he makes it look like he has chemistry with Conroy. Can be physical, but isn’t, or at least isn't often enough. Most talkative Flame.

07-08 Evaluation:
As much as I enjoy Craig Conroy, there is little to suggest he isn't on a relatively steep career decline in terms of ability. While the mind seems willing the flesh seems weak. Kent has made it a mission to articulate Conroy's offensive deficiencies and while I don't completely agree with Kent (I believe there are worse options on the Flames as well as better) he does have a very valid point. Conroy should not be on the first line.

While Conroy's behindthenet.ca column here actually looks pretty respectable I think there are a couple of things we need to remember:

Firstly, he was playing with topnotch teammates. Funny enough, Langkow is rated as having better teammates than Conroy which would imply that Langkow was bringing down the line, not Conroy - hey, I guess desjardin's system isn't perfect. The most important teammate anyone on the Flames can have though is Iginla, and Conroy often played with Iginla, and there is no doubt Iginla was hoisting Conroy's numbers up. Other things to note; Iginla always played against the top competition, therefore, Conroy played the top competition.

It is curious of course that Conroy had the top 2nd assists on the team. 2nd assists are a bit of an anomaly because there are so many different ways we can conceive of them happening - while first assists would tend mostly to be a direct intention of a scoring play, a 2nd assist could be as simple as a breakout pass or a dump in. Why does Conroy have the best on the team?

One theory is that it's just pure fluke - someone has to have the most second assists and Conroy just happens to be that person. I think the mostly likely explanation though is that his linemates (Iginla and either Tanguay or Huselius) happen to finish a lot of plays, and judging from the number of 1st assists Conroy has, they finish a lot of plays that he's not directly involved in, at least not puck wise. Anyone disagree?

I've been ragging on Conroy a bit and I really should add that he does still have some value. He reads the play well defensively and is used to playing pretty decent competition. There shouldn't be any reason why he can't be a very competent shutdown guy for the Flames, something the Flames haven't really had for a while.

Projection: 4th line
Key Stat: 1st overall quality of competition

Sam Gagner

2008-09-30T18:54:00.004-06:00

It's hard to be anything but positive when talking about Sam Gagner. I liked him the first time I saw him, well before he was on the radar of most Oiler fans, and he hasn't failed to impress since. Beat the odds to make the team one year ago and did enough during that 11 game tryout period to make himself stick throughout the rest of the year.

What sorts of skills does Gagner have? Reads the play well, great positioning instincts, above average hands. What type of skills doesn't he have? Well, you're not going to see Gagner dominate with his physicality, he's certainly not blazingly fast (although he is quick) and he's probably not going to be given a lot of defence first assignments by his coach.

Before I get into the desjardins numbers, I just want to make the note that Gagner did just about as well as can be expected as an 18 year old in the NHL.

The most obvious thing we can take note of here is that Gagner played with pretty much the best linemates on the team and also against some of the softest competition. With that in mind, I think it's fair to say that if he treads water in terms of his counting numbers this year we can call it a win. With the departure of both Marty Reasoner and Jarret Stoll, both of whom were carrying the heaviest loads competition wise, I think it's fair to expect Gagner will have to face tougher competition, at least some of the time.

His offensive categories were relatively pedestrian although that had mostly to do with his lack of goals - making great passes is definitely is definitely his strength.

Finally, one more note - MacT was playing Gagner 4th most of all forwards- the coach has confidence in his rookie, no?

Projection: 2nd line
Key Stat: 1st in quality of teammates

Matthew Lombardi

2008-09-29T21:46:00.002-06:00

07-08 Prediction

After a wild first ride in his first season with Calgary, in which he was severely concussed by Derian Hatcher during the playoffs, Lombardi has steadily increased his hockey sense and found ways to use his overwhelming speed to his advantage. Needs to become a better passer and needs more than one move on the penalty shot and shootout (forehand-backhand-fivehole, here’s hoping opposition goalies don’t take note…). Was Canada’s 2nd best forward in the 2007 World Championships playing next to Rick Nash (who was Canada’s best forward), thereby proving he has 1st line potential.

07-08 Evalutation
Despite everything my eye tells me when I watch Lombardi, he just seems unable to create offence. He flies around the ice, he's usually in good position, but he doesn't finish very often. Granted, we know Lombardi has been playing with some pretty poor linemates - but I don't think that's the entire reason he can't seem to put the puck in the net.

Below I have his EV stats, but I'd like to preface them by pointing out that I found Lombardi to be a very good penalty killer, very crafty when a man down.

Lombardi's stats are all so...middle of the road - maybe that's good considering who he was playing with, but I just feel like he should be doing better. He has two stats that jump out at me: His GF/60 is atrocious, while it seems that Keenan didn't pick up on it because he seemed to play Lombardi as much as anyone- more so it seems; his EVTOI/60 was third on forwards.

This year is going to have to be Lombardi's year; Backlund appears to be knocking on the door and the Flames simply have too many centerman. From the sounds of it Lombardi will get every opportunity to play on the second line; if he doesn't grab the position this year and make something of himself, he could become redundant.

for Kent's thoughts, click here.

Projection: 2nd line
Key Stat: 3rd place on forwards for TOI/60

Fernando Pisani

2008-09-24T20:56:00.004-06:00

I'm not really sure what the consensus is about this picture, but for my money it was the absolute highlight of the 2006 playoffs. Just when all hope seemed lost Fernando burst in on that break and just wired it. Very few moments in life are as perfect as that one.

Of course everyone knows about Pisani's bout with ulcerative colitis, something will never truly go away but for now (and hopefully for a very long time) it's under control.

It's hard to find a player with such a lack of flair that is as celebrated (at least in the Oilogosphere) as Fernando Pisani. It's like he's some sort of lightning rod of appreciation for both the traditional scouting (he always seems to be in the right place, he does the little things right, he reads the play well) and the great statistical revolution.

The great thing about Pisani is that he proves right those people who appreciate great 'smart hockey.' Substance over style.

Check out these desjardins numbers from Pisani on an injury reduced season. We can see that he was on the bottom third of the roster for teammates, but he was on the top third for quality of competition. Babysitting a bit perhaps?

His GF/60 isn't too shabby either. Of returning Oilers from 07-08 only 3 players were better than him per minute (Horcoff, Brodziak, Cogliano). Strangely Pisani was not very strong on first assists; perhaps the people he was playing with simply weren't finishing off chances very often.

From the sounds of things MacT is looking to put Pisani at center on the third line - IMO it's the forward position needing the most endurance and the most thinking. Pisani should be fine.

Projection: 3rd line
Key Stat: 4th for forwards in Quality of Opposition

When Bob McKenzie Speaks, I Listen

2008-09-21T21:37:00.004-06:00

Popped onto my computer tonight after watching Entourage to write my piece about David Moss and I got a little distracted watching Bob McKenzie's '6 Cities in 6 Days' Calgary Flames 'evaluation.' I pretty much idolize McKenzie, he seems to me to be the far and away best hockey columnist in the world and I think when he says something about your team it pays to pay attention because it's more than likely he heard it from the horses mouth.

Now, McKenzie is saying that as of now, Bertuzzi is going to be accompanying Iginla and Langkow on the top line, while Lombardi will be flanked by Cammalleri and Bourque. It's the placement of three (Lombardi, Cammalleri, Bertuzzi) players out of that six that really interests me.

We know that both Cammalleri and Bertuzzi are used to playing soft opposition at EV, and we know that Cammalleri faired poorly even with top linemates while Bertuzzi did well but with top linemates (going by last year, of course). Judging by McKenzie's remarks, it looks like Keenan will give one (Cammalleri as of now) the soft opposition, while the other guy will get good linemates (Bertuzzi).

Happily, it looks like Lombardi might get a chance with decent linemates, something I think a lot of Flames fans have been waiting for for a long time.

The lines, as of today, look like this:

Bertuzzi - Langkow - Iginla
Cammalleri - Lombardi - Bourque

There is a third option though:

Conroy/Bourque - Langkow - Iginla
Cammalleri - Lombardi - Bertuzzi

Now, the Flames are pretty center heavy, and besides Iginla, there are no wingers who are going to most often outplay the top EV opposition - Bertuzzi and Bourque or Cammalleri could be pretty interchangeable there (except for potentially the offence they bring). On the other hand, Conroy for instance, is used to playing the other team's top opposition - he's playing off position but with so many centermen on this team it's pretty much bound to happen at some point anyway.

The beauty of this lineup is that Keenan can throw the 2nd line over the boards against the other team's muckers and with any luck they should be able to dominate. The skill level at least is overwhelming and Lombardi for sure has some defensive presence of mind in case things get really bad. This line could operate somewhat like whatever line MacTavish throws Gagner and Nilsson on; they play the weaker opposition and ya, sometimes they get caught with their pants down but on average they're probably going to come out on top.

Plus, this gives Boyd a spot on the third line to develop and get his sea legs while Primeau can hang around on the 4th. You could also argue this opens up a spot for Backlund to compete for: that third line one. If Boyd doesn't carpe diem Backlund might be able to get in there - he might also be able to go for the Primeau position but I don't think that would be the best for his development.

The drawbacks? Well I've already mentioned that during road games that second line could get caught out there. Secondly there isn't a lot of players on that line looking to take care of business in their own end - it could get seriously ugly at times. Finally, how hard does this hinder the first line? I would argue the effects of having Bourque out there instead of Cammalleri or Bertuzzi will be perceived to be much bigger than they actually are, but they could nonetheless exist.

Thoughts?

David Moss

2008-09-21T21:02:00.007-06:00

07-08

Got his ‘cup of coffee’ in the NHL last season and showed some real potential. Uses his body effectively and plays bigger than his size. Has a pretty good nose for the net, scoring 10 goals in 41 games. Has to show consistency and will have to fight for a 2nd line roster spot this year. This picture is a great example of the way Moss plays – down and dirty.

07-08 Evaluation

Moss had a pretty interesting season mostly because we didn't really get any better idea of what he's capable of than we did during his cup of coffee the season prior. He played through most of the first third of the season, had an ankle injury (missed 14 games), played for another month or so, then missed another 19 games due to a leg injury. One can only assume that during his middle portion or so there that he was still recovering to some degree (getting back into game shape at least) and then same can be said when he returned from his leg injury.

His counting numbers are not impressive. 41 GP, 4G, 11PTS. He's got all the makings of a 4th liner all right.

To my eye though it always seemed as if Moss was getting lots of chances and creating offensive opportunities, if not simply because he just always seems to be 'around.' I don't think my eyes weren't deceiving me too much, but they weren't exactly dead on.

Here we see that he was playing with about the third liners of the team, and while it looks on his offensive categories he may not have been driving results, he was at least keeping pace, which leads me to believe that perhaps if he had better linemates, he'd keep a better pace.

Another thing to note of his offensive abilities regarding last year; his shooting percentage was about 7%, about half of his previous season with the Flames, and a solid 5% or so below his career average. If we can safely say that a player with a high shooting percentage will come down after a good year, can we also not predict that a player with a low shooting percentage will come back up after a year?

David Moss is never going to be a 1st line difference maker or anything like that, but I think if he was put with some speed (Glencross/Boyd) and some smarts he could put the puck in the net once in a while. As long as he stays healthy I believe he could prove his worth this year - one way or the other.

Kent's take on Moss from back in July(!)

Projection: 3rd line
Key Stat: 5th overall PTS/60

Kyle Brodziak

2008-09-18T21:00:00.004-06:00

I don't think there's any question Brodziak had, on average, a good year, and although I couldn't prove it, I think he just kept getting better as the year went on. He had 4 G 9PTS +6 in his last 10 games and he just looked good.

According the information compiled by LT, Brodziak looks to be a big part of the future here in Edmonton, and I don't see any reason he's wrong. The only issue is that which he shares with Glencross - not a lot of at bats to judge him by.

Now there's also been some talk (myself included) about Brodziak stepping in and helping to fill the heavy lifting roles vacated when Reasoner and Stoll left town. Tall task indeed.

There's nothing really obvious that jumps out about Brodziak's stats. Firstly, we know he's playing pretty low level competition which makes sense considering his number of at bats, and we also know he didn't play with anyone particularly special. He also, on average, didn't really shut down the opposition at all - he had the worst GAON/60 on the entire team, which to me brings some doubt as to his 'heavy lifting' ability.

His G/60 was pretty damn impressive - 2nd on the team. But even that wasn't enough to come close to outscoring the opposition on average - I mean, his +/- wasn't bad, but if he had been getting, say, Sean Horcoff like ice time, it would have exploded.

Look, I'm not saying Kyle Brodziak isn't a good hockey player - or even that he won't be able to do the heavy lifting - but I think MacT needs to think long and hard about throwing Brodziak into the deep end right away. He still needs some swimming lessons.

Projection: 4th liner
Key Stat: 2nd overall in G/60, last in GAON/60

Curtis Glencross

2008-09-17T21:39:00.006-06:00

This is a picture of Curtis Glencross (center) scoring against the Flames. As I recall that game was in November or so and his whole family came into town to watch it. He 'Stempniaked' the Flames, I believe the Jackets won 3-2 and he scored 2 goals. Ouch.

Glencross had quite a year, especially after he was traded to the Oilers. He only has 71 NHL games under his belt so the sample size is small but what we did see seemed to be something worth watching.

Glencross split games between MacT and Hitchcock but it seems they both utilized him in the same way: throw him out against the other team's bottom rungers and watch him fly.

I ranked him against all of his old Oiler teammates (simply as a matter of behindthenet.ca conveniance) , and while Glencross was playing with the worst teammates against the worst opponents, he must've been winning just about every battle out there. Check out the numbers of this '4th liner.'

2nd overall GF/60
6th overall PTS/60
1st overall GAON/60

Very impressive.

Out of all of Sutter's summer acquisitions, this one has the highest chance of paying off. It's a gamble because despite of all his stellar numbers, there's one dubious number: 71, total NHL games played. That's a pretty small sample size. Despite that I think it's a good gamble - Glencross is exactly the sort of upgrade depth guy the Flames could've used last year.

Here's what Kent and LT had to say about him.

I'd say there's a slim outside chance of Glencross making the 2nd line, but I would think at worst he's a decent 3rd line guy.

Projection: 3rd line
Key Stat: 1st overall GAON/60

Ethan Moreau

2008-09-16T16:42:00.005-06:00

07-08 Season Preview
A top notch athlete in terms of strength and conditioning. Moreau has a win at all costs attitude and is very well respected in the dressing room, considered by many to be the future captain of the Oilers. My only issue with Moreau being named captain is that it's hard to lead when you spend only 15 minutes a night (tops) on the ice, regardless, Moreau does not need a 'C' on his shoulder to be a leader. Has tremendous speed and is an excellent forechecker. Is very willing to fight. Has almost zero closing ability which is exemplified by his offensive numbers, but god knows he gets plenty of chances.

Update: October 2, 2007 - Ethan Moreau named head captain of the Edmonton Oilers

07-08 Season Evaluation
First of all I think I'd like to say that I stand behind my earlier argument that there were better choices for captain than Ethan Moreau, only because of his limited ice time, and now obviously, because of his limited healthy time (I still like Steve Staios for that option).

It seems I was only half correct when I said Moreau simply cannot close on scoring chances. While the overall team production (GFON/60) is the absolute worst when the Moreau is on the ice, he's not actually that terrible at putting the puck in the net (6th overall for returning players).

A lot of red overall for Moreau in the offensive categories, but nothing that surprising. What is worth mentioning, and again, something I have ignored for all my other profiles save Nystrom, is Moreau's absolutely terrible corsi number. Now the sample size is pretty small so that could account for some of the issue; to my eye I don't remember Moreau the ice being tilted so heavily toward the Oilers' net when Moreau is on like I do with Nystrom (although that could explain why team production drops so much when he's on the ice). But it doesn't explain why, if the opposition is getting so many shots, his GAON/60 is so fair. Up front he's behind only Stortini and Nilsson. Seems like something doesn't add up.

No reason to expect anything but the same from Moreau this year. I suppose it's possible MacTavish starts off trying out Moreau with some of the heavier lifting - the sorts of situations Reasoner had in the past - but it's also possible Brodziak gets that job and MacT slots him in with Stortini and a newbie on the 4th.

There is a Lebrun article that both Jonathan and LT are talking about where MacT has been hinting at Penner and Moreau on the 3rd line. Let it be so.

Projection: 3rd liner
Key Stat: 3rd forward GAON/60

Eric Nystrom

2008-09-15T21:44:00.006-06:00

Unlike Dustin Boyd, we can't put up a photo of Eric Nystrom playing in the World Junior Championship; Nystrom played for Team USA, but that was in 2003 (the relevance of that photo is certainly waining) and besides, google images doesn't seem to have any copies of a photo of Nystrom in Team USA digs if any in fact exist.

Another difference between Nystrom and Boyd is that at 25, I think we can safely assume Nystrom has finished his growing pains. What we now see is what we're going to see for the rest of his career.

Not that what we see now is all bad. I think Nystrom has carved himself out a nice little niche as a 4th line energy guy - he crashes, he bangs, he cycles. He must be used sparingly though.

Nystrom isn't really in the red in any categories (good) but he certainly isn't in the green (bad). One thing that moderately concerns me but I haven't really discussed among any other player is Nystrom's corsi number - it's worse than any other player on the team. Now to my eye there is a lot of running around on Calgary when Nystrom is on the ice, and there are a lot of shots against. Certainly the corsi number supports that idea.

I think though if you put Nystrom out there with some half decent defensive guys he could be ok. His GAON/60 really isn't that bad, its certainly not as bad as the corsi number would suggest, so maybe the shot totals are up but the shot quality is down. There's hope anyway.

Projection: 4th line
Key Stat: 3rd ranked forward GAON/60.

edit: I would be negligent to forget to include Kent's take on Nystrom from back in August which is better than my own.

Dustin Boyd

2008-09-11T19:26:00.007-06:00

Dustin Boyd played for Team Canada during one of their last 4 straight World Junior Championship wins, the second one in fact. This team was notable for a few things; one year after the dream team (Getzlaf, Phaneuf, Crosby, Richards etc), they played in Canada, two notable or infamous players were on that team, Steve Downie (who was fantastic) and Luc Bordon (RIP). Note, Andrew Cogliano also played on this team.

Boyd wasn't half bad himself; he scored 3 goals in the round robin (although none in the final 2 playoff games). At the time it seemed he had a bit of a scoring touch, could be a nice little 2nd liner.

Boyd hasn't been great.

There's probably a lot of reasons for his results: Firstly, Keenan has been playing him with just about the worst teammates possible. Not the absolute worst but pretty near the bottom. Secondly, Boyd is just young. He turned 22 in July so it's not really surprising he's unseasoned; Boyd needs time to develop, and he needs decent teammates to do it with.

I think the most interesting thing when you look at Dustin Boyd's desjardins numbers is that his point production is far ahead of where you would expect it to be given his linemates. Now, he doesn't pass Matt's 'line in the sand test' but the only players left on the Flames who did happened to be playing with Jarome Iginla (or happen to be Jarome Iginla).

Now, I'm not necessarily saying Boyd is going to jump out and score 25 goals this year, but prorate his effort last year we get close to 20. The Flames have virtually no scoring depth, so I think it would make sense to at least try playing him on one of the top two lines on a trial basis.

Obviously he's going to need someone on the line who can teach him to play defence, but Boyd still has promise. I think it's time to invest some playing time in him.

Projection: 3rd line
Key Stat: 2nd overall GF/60

Addendum: It's been a couple months since I last read Kent's musing on Boyd but he agrees with me (or I agree with him). Great minds I hope.

Zack Stortini

2008-09-10T18:11:00.003-06:00

This is a picture of Zack Stortini training with 'the Mandelbaums' (as LT has dubbed them) apparently setting up for a power clean (note his grip width is too narrow for a snatch and his double overhead indicates he's not going to deadlift, although I think a regular clean is just as likely). There was a lot of talk during the offseason about what sort of money Stortini would be willing to take to play for the Oilers given his limited role/ability but that's all been cleared up so all is good from the Stortini camp.

Watching Stortini last year I think we saw something of a transformation in his game. He started the season and indeed his career playing a chicken with his head cut off style but his role was narrowed and focused as the season progressed last year and he turned into a pretty effective energy guy/agitator and arguably, even shutdown.

It's obvious looking at the numbers that MacT isn't exactly comfortable throwing Stortini out there against anyone; he's dead last on the team in terms of even strength ice time per game. He's also 2nd to last in terms of the competition he faced.

The good news is that Stortini did ok with the job he was given. His teammates were among the worst on the team but they were doing a fantastic job at keeping the puck out of their own end. Stortini was the very best in the team in fact.

I have to admit I'm a Zack Stortini fan; he doesn't fight well and he's not overly skilled, but he found a way to be a very useful player for the Edmonton Oilers.

Projection: 4th liner
Key Stat: 1st overall GAON/60

Marc Antoine Pouliot

2008-09-04T12:09:00.004-06:00

This picture appears to be taken shortly after Pouliot was drafted and I must say, his chances of making an impact on this team were probably a lot higher that day.

I think Pouliot did a not bad job during his spot duty during the 2nd half of 06-07 (46GP, 7G, 11PTS) and it just seemed like he was never really given a shake in 07-08. I think he actually did ok though.
He's got some red exploding out from those desjardins numbers but it's not entirely bad. MacT played Pouliot against the softest competition but he also played him with the worst teammates. Pouliot wasn't dominating his competition but I'd say he was at least hanging in there.

Some Oilers fans (and bloggers) have been proposing Pouliot's best chance to make a real impact is to take Stoll's position as the shutdown centerman; I have to agree. There simply isn't any room for him on one of the top two center positions right out of training camp, (between Horcoff, Gagner and Cogliano) so Pouliot has to beat out Kyle Brodziak on that third line.

He's not going to do it with pure offensive ability; Brodziak was certainly outscoring him; Brodziak also had a better FO% (51.5% - 47.7%) and took more ( 3.7/g - 1.8/g). I don't know Pouliot's FO data, but Jonathan has some that show MacT was putting Brodziak in more own zone faceoff situations than any other rookie.

With all that being said, I'd say Pouliot's chances of being the shutdown guy aren't good.

Projection: 4th line center
Key Stat: last on forwards in Goals/60

Marcus Nilson

2008-09-02T20:21:00.005-06:00

Marcus Nilson is not a terrible hockey player. He's been grouped with a couple of players that are pretty much terrible (Eriksson, Warrener) but he's easily the class of that group. He scored 4 goals and 6pts for Sweden in this year's World Hockey Championships which to me shows that he must still have some gas left in the tank (more goals by the way than he had all year for the Flames). How much gas is of course up for debate.

I don't think we can claim that Mike Keenan was putting Nilson in a tremendously bad position. He was playing the absolute worst competition and at times his linemates were downright middle of the pack. Certainly he wasn't getting a lot of icetime, but I think Keenan was justified in restricting Nilson's icetime.

The best thing that can be said about Nilson, and it can't be said of everyone, is that he wasn't drowning in his position. He was at worst treading water and if his job is to stop his opponents from scoring he is succeeding.

Projection: 4th liner
Key Stat: 1st overall in GAON

Dion Phaneuf

2008-08-30T23:27:00.004-06:00

07-08 Prediction:

Had an up and down season in 06-07. Opposition began to compensate for Phaneuf’s presence on the blueline, but he still managed 17 goals, 4 game winners. Destroyed Denis Hamel early on in the year with a thundering check, but was quieter than his rookie year. Did not mesh well with Robyn Regehr. Ice time increased. Asked to play a pure shutdown/containment role for Canada in the World Championships, Phaneuf was nothing less than spectacular.

07-08 Evaluation:
Phaneuf's counting numbers continued their increasingly impressive rise to 17 goals and and 60 points. I don't think he had any single highlight reel hits this year but that's ok, I'm more concerned with his actual defensive presence.

I don't think there was any better illustration of Phaneuf's shortcomings than in the playoffs against San Jose. While there was no doubt he was contributing offensively (3G, 7PTS), it was nothing less than heart attack hockey seeing him go against Joe Thornton. It's unfair to accuse Phaneuf of not being strong enough, but quite frankly, he just couldn't handle Thornton, especially down low. There's no shame in that obviously, Thornton is one of the league's elite. It just appears that Phaneuf isn't, at least when it comes to defensive zone coverage. Not yet anyway.Looking at behindthenet.ca numbers I think we can get a bit of a year long illustration of what I'm saying. His offensive numbers are all stellar, (1st in GFON for defencemen, 1st in pts/60 for defencemen, etc). He's obviously a workhorse (1st overall in EVTOI/60) but I have to think that at least some of his totals are because of the fact he gets top notch teammates.

The disappointing part of the behindthenet.ca numbers come in the fact we can see he's facing 2nd tier opposition and not really stopping them from scoring goals. He's not even in the first half of defenceman in terms of opposition shutdown ability.

Right now Phaneuf is a very good defenceman, but if he ever hopes to win that Norris he was nominated for he needs to tighten up his defensive zone coverage.

Projection: number 1 defenceman
Key Stat: 1st for defenceman in GFON and PTS/60

Sheldon Souray

2008-08-30T12:42:00.003-06:00

07-08 Prediction:

Appropriately labeled a 'chaos defender' by Lowetide. Is often as likely to cause a goal against as a goal for. Has given up a couple of unsightly highlight reel one on one situations, although cut down on that 'issue' in the most recent season. Has an absolute boomer from the point and a real mean streak. Is a physical presence. Appears to be well respected by players. Is absolutely not as good a player as Ryan Smyth despite his pay scale.

07-08 Evaluation:
I must admit, looking back, I've been a bit hard on Souray. I think everything I wrote about him in my 07-08 prediction holds pretty true, but when he first went down with shoulder trouble last season I made the comment that the Oilers were probably better off without him playing. His counting totals weren't very impressive and he seemed to be on for a lot of goals against. From that point on Souray really only made cameo appearances for the Oilers, but he was surprisingly effective. Bare in mind this is an extremely small sample size.

Sure, his GFON was brutal (worst for defenceman, 2nd worst on the team), but look at his competition and his teammates; MacT was giving Souray pretty tough assignments and making him babysit his linemates - surprisingly he pretty much came out on top. MacT wasn't totally throwing him under the bus like Stoll or Reasoner (or Staios) judging from IOF's handy little graph, but he was obviously being challenged.

Souray's most promising statistic? His GAON - 3rd on the team and first for defenceman. Isn't that supposed to be his weakness?

Obviously last year could have been an anomaly both in terms of play and in sample size, so this year will be a real test for Souray.

Still, I'd rather have Smyth.

Projection: 1st pairing defenceman
Key Stat: 3rd overall GAON, 1st for defenceman

Lubomir Visnovsky

2008-08-28T12:11:00.005-06:00

I think even more so than Sheldon Souray we can think of Lubomir Visnovsky as that 'puck moving defenceman' that the Oilers coveted . Partly because Souray really isn't a puck mover at all even though he was sold to the public as one, but that's neither here nor there.

The truth is that Lubomir Visnovsky did not have a stellar season last year, even by LA Kings standards. The good news is that his last season is an outlier, not the trend.

05-06: 17G, 67PTS, 0.838PPG
06-07: 18G, 58PTS, 0.841PPG
07-08: 8G, 41PTS, 0.500PPG

As Jonathan Willis would say, 'one of these things is not like the other.'

I think it's unlikely to expect nearly a point a game pace from Visnovsky, but he'll get plenty of PP time with Sheldon Souray and I would expect his pace will increase from half a point a game.

Looking at his desjardins numbers from last year with the LA Kings it should become obvious why Lubomir Visnovsky should be played on the second defensive unit against the soft opposition.

His GFON was ok but his GAON was just awful, even for LA. Let's hope that was an anomaly as well.

The basic lowdown is that I think Visnovsky is going to have to be babysat a bit at EV or given really good teammates, because his value is going to have to come on the PP.

Projection: 2nd pairing defenceman
Key Stat: 13th overall in difficulty of opposition

Robyn Regehr

2008-08-28T11:51:00.005-06:00

07-08 Prediction:
Calgary’s best defenceman, he uses his size and positioning to punish opposition forwards. Calgary was simply a worse team when Regehr didn’t play. Offensive upside is limited, but managed to crank out 4 points in 7 games against Anaheim in the playoffs of 05-06. Is committed to the Flames and to winning, signing a below market value extension in the summer of 07.

07-08 Evaluation:
The picture above is of Robyn slamming Selanne right behind the defensive zone net, which is appropriate because that's his signature move and because he apparently has a distaste for Selanne that runs far deeper than any other NHLer.

Robyn Regehr's season can't really be described by any word other than workhorse. He played 82 games facing the toughest opposition of any defenceman and the second toughest opposition overall playing with just about the worst teammates of all defenceman.

He kept up his clutch playoff reputation by putting up 2 assists in 7 games and shadowing Joe Thornton into oblivion.

Last year Regehr played with Cory Sarich but I expect this year he'll get Phaneuf as his partner, and so his counting numbers will likely increase. If Keenan continues his power vs power strategy, I would also expect Regehr's defensive numbers (GAON) to improve as well. Having real teammates can only help him.

The only real question about Regehr is who is going to replace him on the second pairing?

Projection: 1st pairing defenceman
Key Stat: 2nd overall and 1st defenceman in opposition difficulty

Cory Sarich

2008-08-27T16:57:00.006-06:00

I'm sure this picture is a little painful for most Flames fans but I think it's important to remember that at one point Cory Sarich won the Cup and it may not hold as much weight as the MSM may indicate but it does have value.

Most Flames fans that I have talked to seem to agree Sarich is overpaid ($3.6 cap hit) but the higher the cap rises the more appropriate his salary seems to get. He's not a bad defensive defenceman, doesn't do anything great but nothing terrible either. Generally makes safe plays and obviously had that one incredible hit on Patrick Marleau in the 08 playoffs.

Looking at his desjardins numbers there is a lot of red, but thankfully it's exactly where we would expect it to be; at his offensive numbers. Make no mistake, Cory Sarich was not brought on board to score goals, he was brought on board to stop them.

As was obvious to anyone who watched the Flames last season, Sarich played with Regehr on what basically amounted to a defensive shutdown unit. Sarich played the second toughest opposition minutes for defenseman (behind Regehr, so basically equal toughness) and did not a bad job; his GAON were 3rd among defenceman, behind Vandermeer and Aucoin who both played against much lesser opposition.

I have a feeling this year that Regehr will be paired with Phaneuf and therefore Sarich has to expect a new defensive partner at EV. Without Regehr at his side I imagine his play will remain steady but now Flames fans will be able to get a better picture of how much of a difference maker he really is.

Projection: 2nd pairing defenceman
Key Stat: 2nd quality of opposition among defenceman

Sakic Returns

2008-08-27T13:30:00.004-06:00

TSN and the Colorado Avalanche have announced the return of Joe Sakic to a 1 year deal. Great news for hockey fans, not so great news for Flames and Oilers fans.

Who has doubts he could score a 100 points this year? I don't.

Tom Gilbert

2008-08-27T10:29:00.005-06:00

Pictured in the above picture are Tom Gilbert (wearing the 77) and skating coach Steve Serdachney (holding the timing device). Tom Gilbert was a bit of a surprise to make the team out of training camp in 07 but he became a bit of a revelation throughout the 07-08 season. He played smart defensive hockey, he's mobile, he's not physical per se, but he is strong enough to handle opposition players.

I think we can expect his counting numbers to drop off a bit as it's unlikely he'll receive the same amount of PP time this year thanks to the acquisition of Visnovsky and a (hopefully) healthy Sheldon Souray.

Looking at Gilbert's behindthenet.ca numbers I think what really pops out are his PTS/60 and GFON which are both ranked pretty highly on the team. While his GAON wasn't particularly impressive even on the context of this team, certainly his GFON was.

This is a little bit disturbing; as LT points out, Gilbert's PTS/60 was near the top the of the division and I don't think we can expect him to continue at that level (although of course we can hope). That being said I think another year of playing and understanding what to expect at this level of hockey can only help him and hopefully his defensive numbers will improve a bit.

Projection: 1st pairing even strength defenceman
Key Stat: 2nd EVTOI/60 for defenceman and 2nd GFON/60

Denis Grebeshkov

2008-08-25T20:49:00.004-06:00

I think the most interesting speculation about Grebeshkov right now is not about his playing ability which I think most of the Oiler nation agrees upon, but upon his future with the team. Right now he's signed through 08-09 but after that one can only assume a team from the KHL will be able to offer him more money than he's worth to the Edmonton Oilers, and without a transfer agreement that means he's gone for nothing. That and the fact that he has the opportunity to play in front of the hometown crowd means that in all likelihood he'll be gone in 09-10.

That said I think that besides the first 1/3 of last season (which was pure heart attack hockey) Grebeshkov has been adjusting nicely. While, as I mention, the first third of the season involved poor pinching decisions and bad decision breakout passing (among other things) the second half we saw Grebeshkov settle down and let his skills take over.

Of course MacT had a lot to do with Grebeshkov's success. I'll once again reference Vic's awesome graph at IOF and we can clearly Grebeshkov isn't being leaned on for the defensive responsibilities. What we can say though is that Grebeshkov played extremely well in the situation he was in, especially considering his experience (104NHLGP).

Projection: 2nd pairing defenceman
Key Stat: 1st defenceman in GFON and 2nd in GAON.

Mark Giordano

2008-08-25T14:37:00.005-06:00

07-08 Prediction:

Playing the role of Calgary’s 6^th defenceman in 06-07, Giordano was nothing but stellar. He has good wheels, good hockey sense and has shown he can step it up in pressure situations. Ate up softer minutes. Was not favoured by Jim Playfair.

August 15: Marc Giordano is unsigned (Battle of Alberta)

07-08 Evaluation:
Mark Giordano is one of the biggest question marks on the roster coming into this season. Although his contributions a season ago were unquestionably favourable, he is now a year and a half removed from playing with Calgary and spent last season toiling in the now defunct (transmogrified?) RSL.

According to behindthenet.ca Giordano played the worst opposition of all Flames defenceman, but he had the worst teammates as well. He was 5th among defencemen in GFON/60 and 4th in GAON/60.

He certainly didn't take a leap forward offensively in Russia, (48GP, 7G, 15PTS Calgary, 50GP, 4G 13PTS Moscow) although I can't tell what sort of opposition he played or what sort of teammates he was given.

What I do know is that he was good enough in Europe to attract the attention of Hockey Canada officials and he was named to Canada's Spengler Cup Team and then to the World Championship entry as an alternate. I think Flames fans can take that as a good sign.

I think if Giordano can play a top 4 role for the Flames at even strength, they'll be in a good position come April. I think if Aucoin is forced to play that role, the Flames will be in trouble.

Projection: 2nd pairing defenceman

Adrian Aucoin

2008-08-21T20:00:00.004-06:00

I debated about whether to place Aucoin behind or ahead of Giordano, but the more I think about it the more I think I'd much rather have Giordano on the second pairing. It's not that I think Aucoin is devoid of ability, quite the contrary. I think he still has ok offensive instincts and his defence isn't bad - it's just not great either.

His mobility last year was just so awful- I can't recall all the instances I saw him get beat on the outside.

Looking at Aucoin's desjardins numbers I think Keenan evaluated Aucoin in much the same way. The only defenceman playing lesser competition and getting less EV ice time was Vandermeer and Warrener.

The good news is that I think Aucoin did pretty well in the situations he played in (on average). His GFON was pretty middle of the pack but his offensive stats are definitely better than average.

My hope for the upcoming season is that Aucoin is sheltered from the tough competition and utilized as a nice weapon against the softies.

Projection: 3rd pairing defenceman (#1 PP Unit)
Key Stat: #1 defenceman goals/60

Steve Staios

2008-08-21T17:32:00.003-06:00

07-08 Prediction

A heart and sole hockey player who continues to age like a fine wine. Staios has excellent positioning and is always physical. Is not a quick/fast player and is not offensively gifted. He’s a guy 29 NHL teams wish they had in some capacity or another. Probably not a top pairing guy but could excel in a shutdown role. Used to play forward for the Atlanta Thrashers but has been named Oilers’ Unsung Hero multiple times. Will be heavily counted upon in the upcoming season. I believe he will be named team captain, but at the very least he will be an assistant.

07-08 Evaluation

I think this one sentence "will be heavily counted upon in the upcoming season" pretty much summed up Steve Staios' last season with the Oilers, although I think "continues to age like a fine wine" still applies. Despite not having the defence presence or ability of someone like Robyn Regehr, MacTavish continues to go back to his workhorse time and time again. This face off analysis from IOF shows in yet another way just how much MacTavish counts on Staios and certainly explains why his plus minus is so bad. Imagine if the guy had anywhere near an even faceoff zone spread.

I think this upcoming year MacTavish's reliance on Staios will wain, at least in some situations. He's got some new guys that might be of use in the defensive zone (Strudwick, Visnovsky), and a couple that will probably be improved (Smid, Gilbert). Time to spread the load around a bit.

Here's Lowetide's take.

Projection: top 4 defenceman
Key Stat: 1st overall in icetime, 2nd overall in quality of opposition

Jim Vandermeer

2008-08-20T16:36:00.004-06:00

I think the first thing that needs to be said about Jim Vandermeer is that he's played the equivalent of just over 3 full NHL seasons and played for 4 teams. Granted he's made 2 stops on Broad St., but I don't think this can be construed in a complimentary way. Another thing to note is that although I've categorized him as a defenceman (as has topps trading card company) but Sutter utilized him as a forward on several occasions. Not really sure if that's a testament to Vandermeer's versatility, an insult to his defensive ability or an insult to the effectiveness of the Flames forward group.

Looking at his desjardins numbers it becomes clear that Vandermeer was sheltered by his coaches as his quality of competition rating is much lower than his quality of teammates. Now as far as I know these desjardins numbers are for the whole year and not just his time in Calgary which could explain his high ranking in GAON. Either he did a good job or benefited from playing on some decent teams with good lineups. For the moment though it looks as though if you shelter Vandermeer and give him some lower quality of competition he could do alright.

Projection: 3rd pairing defenceman
Key Stat: 4 overall in GAON

Ladislav Smid

2008-08-20T15:54:00.005-06:00

07-08 Prediction:

A smooth skating puck handling defenceman. Tends to make pretty good 1st passes. Reads the play pretty well defensively. Biggest crime last year was being thrust into a key role as a 1st year defenceman, but I believe he has good fundamentals. Can hold onto the puck for too long and isn’t very physical. Hasn’t shown the offensive upside a player of his skill set perhaps could have.

07-08 Evaluation:
I think we saw Smid take a step forward in 07-08 based purely on his desjardins numbers. He saw top 4 minutes, top 4 quality of competition and his GAON was top 4. He still needs to work on helping his linemates put the puck in the net which explains his horrendous +/- but there weren't many Oilers defenceman out of the red last year (only one in fact) so I'm not going to totally hold it against him. Smid's role should be reduced a bit this year and I think that can only help him.

Projection: 3rd pairing defenceman
Key Stat: 4th overall in EV ice time

Anders Eriksson

2008-08-19T15:47:00.006-06:00

I don't think there's a lot of positive that can be said about Anders Eriksson in terms of hockey skills. He's not confident with the puck and is consistently prone to making errors, many of them pretty big. He's also pretty bad without the puck in terms of reading the play and positioning himself effectively. He's also pretty bad 1-1.

I think part of the problem is that Anders simply isn't very good, but I think part of the problem was quicksand. Quicksand is a term I first heard in the movie 'The Replacements' starring Keanu Reeves. It refers to a player in sports who makes a single error and puts himself in a hole. To get out of the hole the player tries to make an even bigger play and creates an even bigger error and so deeper he goes, and the cycle continues until he is buried. Quicksand.

I think we can explain a lot of Eriksson's problems with this analogy. He was paired with Phaneuf for most of the year and was clearly overwhelmed and maybe he just tried to do too much. Maybe. Maybe he's just bad. Probably.

Projection: AHL defenceman - Sutter sends Eriksson down and brings him up only due to injuries - we'll take the risk of another team grabbing him on waivers
Key Stat: Worst GAON for all Flames defenders

Jason Strudwick

2008-08-18T20:59:00.004-06:00

Strudwick comes to the Oilers this summer in a deal from the Rangers as a missing puzzle piece. Now that the Oilers have that coveted playmaking defenceman (Visnovsky) they were short a veteran play it safe guy. That guy is now Jason Strudwick. He'll probably come in and be expected to make the simple plays, calm the young kids down and stick up for his teammates ala Matt Greene.

I think Lowetide's take that Strudwick could see an expanded role under MacT is certainly very reasonable although I wouldn't necessarily expect it or be disappointed if it didn't happen.

When we look at the behindthenet.ca numbers it looks as though Strudwick was definately sheltered at EV, he's the last place defender at TOI and quality of teammates, and he's dead last overall in terms of quality of competition as well as Goals/60, Assists/60 and Points/60. However, goals and points is not why the Oilers traded for Strudwick, and they aren't expecting him to shut down the likes of Gaborik and Iginla.

Projection: 7th defender
Key Stat: 2nd defender in GAON

Rhett Warrener

2008-08-18T20:34:00.004-06:00

07-08 Season Prediction:

Arguably has more heart than anyone else on the team, playing through various (and obviously painful) potential career ending injuries. Played his best hockey of 06-07 in the playoffs but is not capable of playing a top 6 role with injuries anymore. Needs a speedy defence partner to be most effective, but tends to read the play well. Can still dish out punishment. Lack of speed is a big issue.

07-08 Evaluation:

I think everything I said at the beginning of last season is still true now. Warrener's position with the team hasn't really changed; he shouldn't be playing on the top 6 and it seems like Sutter has sent the message that he shouldn't be playing with the team at all.

We see a lot of red in Warrener's little profile here. Keenan was hiding Warrener at EV big time. He was played the least of any defender, against the worst competition. His teammates were also pretty bad but he had to be among the worst of them.

Projection: 7th defender - Sutter won't put him in the minors to avoid the cap hit, even if he should.
Key Stat: second to last defender in terms of GAON.

Mathieu Roy

2008-08-18T20:22:00.007-06:00

I have to preface this by saying I actually like Mathieu Roy. He's plucky. You can't help but cheer for the guy. The main problem is that he's just not that great. He's also pretty injury prone.

I wouldn't say he got eaten alive in his 13 games last year, and I think he could be an alright option for a seventh defenceman and will be able to compete for a spot with Jason Strudwick. Looking at the behindthenet.ca numbers though it seems that MacT believes Roy has limited use.

Projection: injury call up defenceman
Key Stats: Last among Oiler defenders in EVTOI and first among Quality of Teammates. Ranked 3 in defenders for GFON and GAON though.

Updated Player Profiles On The Way

2008-08-18T19:33:00.003-06:00

We're only a couple weeks away from NHL training camps beginning in earnest and I think the best way to predict the future is to evaluate the past. In doing so I will be updating and expanding my player profiles.

I probably won't be saying anything that hasn't been said before but I think the scale of the project hasn't really been taken on as of yet and I think that even if I don't have anything new to say I will be able to confirm some suspicions I (and others) have had.

My method was fairly straightforward but without explaining it some of my conclusions will be pretty questionable so here it is:

I took the behindthenet.ca EV numbers from the 07-08 season for all returning Calgary Flames and Edmonton Oilers and ranked them in all categories overall and positionally (except for corsi). If a player was ranked 1st either overall or positionally he gets a turquoise highlight of the cell, a red cell fill means that player was last place either overall or positionally.

Importantly, the rankings are based ONLY on the returning players. It was an arbitrary decision but I think there are a couple advantages. For instance, we can see what sorts of holes we're left with after the loss of players. In terms of the Flames, Huselius and Tanguay in particular left massive EV holes and because of this, Wayne Primeau is our third ranking returning forward in terms of opposition. That's bad. Secondly, I think it unclutters things. Since those players are gone their stats are noise, not target. We can pinpoint what they did well and what we need to replace, but either way we need to evaluate who will be best for what role now, and those ex players are useless for that.

I've also included incoming players for both the Flames and Oilers. Their rankings are based on their placement with their former teams in the 07-08 season, but their rankings include players that might have been traded from their team. This makes things a little ugly in terms of interpretations but it was purely a practicality thing. I really just didn't want to get into 6 different teams and figure out who was moved, what the roster looks like now, etc. Nonetheless, I think we can still infer some valuable information about their previous role and what they might be doing in the upcoming season.

Dion Phaneuf or Jay Bouwmeester

2008-08-07T18:33:00.004-06:00

I've made it no secret that I am a Jay Bouwmeester fan. Way back in the early 2000s I had a fantasy trade made in my head for him: Jarome Iginla for Jay Bouwmeester and Roberto Luongo. Think the proposition was inane?

Remember this was when Bouwmeester was closer to 18 years old and Roberto was about 20. Iginla had just scored 52 goals and a gold medal in the Olympics. Eventually Luongo (probably the more valuable piece) went for Bertuzzi, and not even a Bertuzzi in his prime. Jay Bouwmeester will be gone next year; he's obviously unhappy in Florida.

Not sure if that trade would have really benefited the Flames. Iginla is still probably worth more than both of them - if he's not the best he's damn close. (Feel free to debate both these points).

Anyway, the point of all this background is that the other day MG brought up the possibility of Sutter going after Bouwmeester. He meets all of Sutter's criteria (from Alberta) except one (not old). In the comments section I brought up my personal bias that if I had to make the choice I would probably take Bouwmeester. MG argued that although Bouwmeester may be the better player, Phaneuf had the higher ceiling.

I decided to dig a little deeper to compare the numbers between these two defenceman. First, the counting numbers:

On first glance they look pretty close, but obviously Jay has played a couple of extra seasons, so we can take a look at counting numbers based on games played. As is plainly obvious, Dion outshines Jay at just about every opportunity. GPG, APG, PPG, SPG, +/-.

We can probably explain some of the difference thusly: Jay Bouwmeester plays on a terrible team, Dion Phaneuf plays on a pretty good team (that is admittedly going downhill.) How much does this affect account for the difference in counting numbers? Hard to say.

Now let's take a look at the Desjardins numbers. I went back to 06-07, Phaneuf's second year and Bouwmeester's third.

06-07 Behind the net numbers

One of the first things that jumps out at me is what a good comp these two make. Look at their even strength ice time totals; about 17 minutes a night each. We can also see that Phaneuf clearly played with better teammates - not surprising, Florida simply didn't have the players Calgary did. Bouwmeester also faced stiffer competition, if only just.

Also take a quick look at each players contribution to team point production. Bouwmeester actually had twice the +/-ON that Phaneuf did - and while the team had a better +/- when Phaneuf took a seat on the bench, Florida imploded when Bouwmeester wasn't on the ice. Bouwmeester actually had the second best ON +/- on the team (players with more than 10 games), next only to Jokinen. Bouwmeester had the team's best OFF+/-, meaning the team had the biggest drop in efficiency when he left the ice.

Phaneuf was 12th on the Flames in ON+/-. This is both due to the fact he had better teammates, but I would also bet it's simply because he's less effective at EV.

Now, Dion does obviously have a few positives. To start, the Flames drew more penalties when Dion was on the ice than Florida did when Bouwmeester was on(151 to 95) but they also took more (149 to 135).

Moving on to the 07-08 season we can see a couple changes. Bouwmeester has an extra minute and a half at EV, and while Phaneuf's competition and teammates have stayed about equal, Bouwmeester has begun to face much better opposition.

07-08 Behind the net numbers

The scoring breakdown begins to separate the two here as well. Phaneuf is putting pucks in the net at about twice the rate of Bouwmeester. They both make first assists at about the same rate (Phaneuf slight edge) but Phaneuf makes second assists at about twice the rate of Bouwmeester. Dion also holds an edge in GFON, and to my surprise, GAON.

I think in cases like this it's important to compare within the team rather than between teams, and in that regard Bouwmeester is ranked 4th in GFON, behind Horton, Booth and Weiss while he's ranked 6th in GAON. To note, his ranking between the two stats is 10th on his team, but on closer inspection he's playing significantly better competition than anyone ranked about him. He's number 1 on the team in terms of competition.

Phaneuf is ranked number 5 for GFON on the Flames, impressive considering the players ahead of him (Iginla, Langkow, Tanguay, Huselius). He is however ranked 17th in GAON, not so impressive. He's 8th on the team overall in the combined GF/GAON+/-. Phaneuf ranks 7 on the team in quality of competition.

What's the conclusion?

No idea really. They're obviously both great players and it's obvious Dion is scoring at a higher rate but it's hard to say whether that's purely due to his teammates or his skill. The Desjardins stats on these guys are also definitely affected by their coaches personal preferences and styles. It looks like Martin leaned heavily on Bouwmeester at even strength more so to shutdown thereby giving the skilled offensive guys the lesser competition to go against while Phaneuf is out there in a power vs power to try run and gun it out.

Personally, I think it's reasonable and even likely to suggest Phaneuf has a higher ceiling of offensive ability but in practice it looks like Bouwmeester has just been shouldered with a lot more defensive responsibility on a much weaker team. It would be interesting to see him on a line with Iginla and Langkow and until he gets those line mates I'm not willing to draw a line in the sand.

Time To Hit the Old Dusty Trail...

2008-07-26T15:57:00.004-06:00

During the Flames' beauty 2004 Stanley Cup run I couldn't help but think how the city's opinion of management would change down the road. After inheriting the team about a season and a half earlier, Darryl Sutter missed the playoffs for the first time in his career. Flames fans weren't exactly surprised, they had missed the playoffs for 7 straight seasons, but for Darryl it was an embarrassment. Never mind that he only had half a season to turn the team around (and did a hell of a job), it was something he, as a Sutter, wouldn't accept.

He made all the right moves. Signed some goalie named Miikka Kiprusoff who turned out to be somewhat of a saviour. He out coached some of the best minds in the business. He cultivated an unknown but exceptionally effective defensive group. He got the most out of a crop of 3rd liners including Marcus Nilson, Sean Donovan and the irrepressible Ville Niemenen. I'm sure there are coaches out there today still wondering how he Sutter did it.

Sutter was God-Like. He brought Calgary out of the gutters and into the stars, even if only for one season. If a fan questioned Sutter during that time the only thing a rational person could do is roll their eyes and shake their head.

'That will all change one day though' is what I kept thinking. In the world of the hockey GM, today's hero is tomorrow's goat.

Tomorrow is today.

It's not so much that Sutter has been a complete disaster. This team is better now than it was before he manned the helm. They're a perennial playoff team (and will certainly be a contender to make the playoffs this year) and although they've only made it past the first round one time, they have been in two separate 'Game 7s.'

Sutter has some strengths which I think we can all agree on:

Identifying his core players (Iginla, Regehr, Kipprusoff, Phaneuf)
Turning trash into treasure (Kipprusoff, Huselius, Nolan, Ference, Hale, Giordano)
Gets consistently good performances out of top players (Iginla, Langkow, Phaneuf, Regehr)
OK at developing rookies (Phaneuf, Lombardi)

Sutter also has some weaknesses which I think we can generally agree on:

Allows useful players to leave for nothing (Giordano, Hale, Clark)
Had a tendency to hire his ex players, seemingly not on merit (Amonte, Friesen, Primeau, Stuart, Nolan, Smith, Marchment, Zyuzin)
Takes shots in the dark on trades/signings (Amonte, Nolan, Bertuzzi, McCarty, Lundmark)
Isn't good at identifying coaching talent (Playfair, Keenan)
Doesn't develop much in house talent (successes include Phaneuf, Lombardi, Moss? Boyd??)
Tends to prefer old overpriced FA veterans instead (Amonte, McCarty, Aucoin, Leclerc, Weimer, Smith, Primeau, Nolan, Bertuzzi)
Hasn't restocked the pipeline (top prospect is Backlund but others don't look promising)

Is that a fair assessment?

I thought I was a bit tardy with this post, especially since CJ and Duncan have both already had great posts on relatively the same subject.

However, I think Lowe getting bumped upstairs the other day brings new relevance to the idea of Sutter moving on. The team simply hasn't progressed the last 2 seasons, and the shuffling of deck chairs has hardly been useful. Take for instance this offseason. Sutter made a nice move for Glencross to solidify his bottom six forwards up front, but was forced to make a desperate move for Bertuzzi because he has zero youngsters ready to fill a top 6 wing position. Jim Vandermeer gets resigned, probably because the Flames are making a Vandermeer family band, and for some reason Sutter acknowledges that Warrener and Eriksson are useless but doesn't do anything relevant about it besides embarrassing one of the most respected guys in the dressing room.

I think it's time for Sutter to move on.

There is of course no way Sutter gets outright fired. Much like Lowe, the Flames management team is enamoured with Darryl Sutter. For the good of the team though, I thing someone in the ownership group needs to suggest Darryl take a 'promotion' and the Flames hire someone outside the organization who will make (or at least suggest) the hockey decisions from now on.

The Shape of Things To Come

2008-07-20T21:45:00.005-06:00

With the absolutely necessary signing of Shawn Horcoff, the Oilers have cemented a couple issues. One: Lowetide changed his site's signature from 'Sign Sean Horcoff' to 'Horcoff Signed!'
Two: We can now predict with some small level of certainty what the team will look like for at least the next few years. And except for a couple of albatrosses, things look pretty good. Let's look at some roster projections barring any trades.

Let's look at the Oilers roster and ages as of 09-10

Penner(27) - Horcoff(31) - Hemsky(26)
Nilsson(24) - Gagner(20) - Cogliano (22)
Moreau(35) - Pouliot(24) - Pisani(33)
Stortini(24)

Visnovsky(33) - Souray(33)
Staios(36) - Gilbert(26)

The 10-11 season:

Penner(28) - Horcoff(32) - Hemsky(27)
Nilsson (25)
Moreau(36)
Stortini(25)

Visnovsky(34) - Souray(34)
Staios(37) - Gilbert(27)

The Core
Looking at this lineup, we can deduce a few upcoming moves and probably when they will happen. Most obvious here is that the Oilers have their core forward group locked up until at least the end of next season, and the guys they have invested a lot of chips in (Penner, Horcoff, Hemsky) through the 10-11 season.

Coming Attractions
The young guns (Gagner, Cogliano, Brodziak) are not immediate concerns but Lowe already needs to start planning his next group of long term contracts around these guys. They're bargains now but where is the cap space going to come when they need resigning. We could be looking at $4-$6 million dollar contracts at the higher end.

Old Grey Horse
The Oilers have invested a lot of chips into Visnovski and Souray who are both already at or past their prime years, unless of course they take the Nik Lidstrom course of action and just keep getting better and better. This means that as the forward group is nearing their prime the Oilers' top defenceman are leaving it. The timing is not good. Reading the tea leaves one of the two is out of town if the opportunity arises. Probably Souray.

Something Has To Give
The Oilers' defensive future isn't really signed. Tom Gilbert is certainly a part of it, no doubt, but given the ages of the other defenceman I think the Oilers have to bank something on Grebeshkov or someone else in that age range. Right or wrong, the defensive group is built for today and the forward group for tomorrow. Something has to give.

Dangerous Game
Where are the goalies? Good question. Deslauriers resigned and I would think he is being groomed to be the new backup while Rolie plays out the rest of his contract this season. Garon, meanwhile, is unsigned after 08-09. Obviously then, the Oiler's top priority between now and July 1 2009 is finding a number 1 goaltender. I would say the plan is to play Garon as the number 1 this season, judge how he reacts, and then resign him, although to believe Lowe isn't flying by the seat of his pants might be a misjudgement. Call this the 'Smyth Plan?'

Long Term Priority List:
Sign a number 1 goalie, Garon or otherwise
Trade or buyout Sheldon Souray
Don't escalate commitment into Penner or Souray if they aren't working out.

Thoughts?

Beggars Just Can't Be Choosers

2008-07-08T18:53:00.005-06:00

I said over in the comments at MG's a while back that Bertuzzi was probably an ok choice for the Flames depending on the cost, and since he's been signed, I would say the price is right.

I think there are basically three schools of thought on Bertuzzi:

1. Bertuzzi is simply an evil person who committed an atrocious act and there's nothing about him that's redeeming.
2. Bertuzzi is a huge victim who made a mistake and have paid his dues
3. Bertuzzi is an ass and probably not a good person but only bad luck has separated him from other heinous acts that have been committed on the ice.

Now, MG seems pretty upset, I would obviously put him in the first category. I think I can categorize the people in the picture in the top of the page as being more in the 2nd category, although probably stupider. I would place myself more in the third category, but I think Matt really expressed my sentiment the best:

"ONE. I don't hate Todd Bertuzzi. Don't think I ever have, though I certainly have no love for the guy. If he was likable at all to we the fan, I would have eventually felt bad for the guy in about 2005, when he was still being portrayed as uniquely evil for committing an act that -- while not commonplace -- is equaled on the Senseless Violence Scale about 5 or 10 times an NHL season, and is surpassed on the Tragic Consequences Scale every so often too." (source)

I've been watching hockey for a long time, and while I won't exactly defend Bertuzzi I'll say I've definitely seen worse. I see something worse probably once a season.

I've never seen worse consequences.

That's the only difference to me.

Not that it's any consolation to Steve Moore.

But in my opinion, this wasn't a bad signing.

I'll agree with Matt on this one. There isn't a lot of risk in a 1 year $1.95 deal. For one, if Bertuzzi plays terrible, both the Flames and the Big Bert can walk away from this amicably. It's already better than Amonte for two years. Secondly, he's not getting paid all that much. Sure, he's the 4th highest paid forward, but he's 10th on the team, and he's only about $500k more than say, Wayne Primeau.

Best case scenario? The guy scores 25 or so goals and draws some of the attention away from Iginla.

The other thing to note about this trade is, as stated before, the Flames absolutely needed someone on the 2nd line. Lombardi is almost a sure bet to be there, but that's about it. Take a look at this chart I made:

Those are the behindthenet.ca numbers for the Flames forward from the preceding season. Obviously it's not a perfect comparison because Bourque, Cammalleri and Bertuzzi were on different teams last year but it at least gives us an idea of where Bertuzzi slots in on the team. In all but two categories, quality of competition and goals/60, Bertuzzi was within the top 6 guys on the Flames. We needed a top 6 guy. Voila.

OK, he was sheltered. Very sheltered. It's not a perfect solution. But it was probably one of the only ones the Flames had left.

I'm no coach, but there has got to be some way to take advantage of this guy's skills.

IMO, this Flames season is shaping up to be a lost cause. There is no reason to hope or expect the Flames to compete for a Cup this spring, and the idea of a playoff spot seems pretty untenable right now. There are too many contracts signed through this year that will anchor this team and too few prospects ready to inject some new blood. It's not a rebuilding season, it's not a bloodletting season. It's a run out the clock season.

Just keep repeating to yourself, it will all (Bertuzzi, Aucoin, Eriksson, Warrener, Nilson, Cammalleri) be over soon.

You Have To Be Good To Be Lucky and Lucky To Be Good

2008-07-06T12:58:00.006-06:00

The last two weeks have brought a lot of changes to the Edmonton Oilers. Jarrett Stoll and his concussed brain finally got sent out of town with the last 'tough guy' defenceman Matt Greene. We also saw the end of Raffi Torres the illegal alien. I thought all those guys brought something valuable to the team but at this point I think it was a case of too many bodies and lots of kids who Lowe figured would have a more likely chance of outperforming their contracts.

Maybe something Darryl Sutter should look into actually.

There's been a lot of lineup predictions bandied about, especially over at LT's, but it'll probably look something like this:

Penner - Horcoff - Hemsky
Cogliano - Gagner - Nilsson
Cole - Brodziak - Pisani
Moreau - Pouliot - Stortini

Gilbert - Grebeshkov
Staios - Souray
Visnovsky - Smid

Garon
Roloson
Deslauries

It's a lineup that has a lot of depth in scoring (Penner, Cole, Horcoff, Hemsky), smarts (Horcoff, Pisani, Staios, Gilbert), and playmaking (Hemsky, Gagner, Visnovsky) but lacks physicality both up front and on defence. Still, it's one of the better lineups the Oilers have had in a long time and I'm certainly excited about the Oil's prospects this season.

I think Kevin Lowe certainly deserves a lot of credit for the lineup we'll see on opening night. He's been part of the procurement of pretty much every player on the roster. I think the little outburst against Burke the other night was long overdue, but there was one comment that I just think Lowe was at least partly off-base on.

"I stand by my offer sheets... Thomas Vanek is going to be a 35+ goal scorer for the rest of his contract… Dustin Penner is going to be a 20+ goal scorer for the rest of his contract."

Now, whether Vanek stays a 35 goal scorer or not, I still think that was a bad offer sheet. $10 million signing of a guy who really only had one good season playing behind Daniel Briere and Chris Drury is a little ridiculous, and four first round picks would have absolutely crippled this franchise for years to come, especially when one realizes just how important 1st round picks are.

The only person who made a dumber move than Kevin Lowe that day was Darcy Regier when he decided to match. I would have taken those draft picks and laughed all the way to the bank.

But that's not the only time Lowe has been rebuffed on a dumb move.

I guess we can go back to last summer to the Nylander fiasco to find one of Lowe's earlier strokes of luck. After declining to sign Ryan Smyth at $5.5 million Kevin Lowe decided Michael Nylander would be a much better fit on the team. Reasons cited included Smyth's age and proneness to injury but of course all those after the fact justifications are bullshit and the real reason Smyth was traded was probably due to incompetence.

I know a lot of Oilers fans and bloggers were excited about the prospect of signing Hossa, and certainly the idea intrigued me. However, I just couldn't get my head around the terms of the offer. First of all, if I had $9 million to throw around I wouldn't throw it at Hossa, especially not for 9 years. IMO he's not quite the calibre of player needed to justify those numbers, even if he is very very good. A contract like that is a lifetime contract and you best be sure you want that player to be the face of your franchise.

It's also not so much what Hossa doesn't bring to the table because he is a great player, it's more about what the Oilers would have to give up. At some point Roloson and Souray and Penner are coming off the books but it looks like they're here to stay for a while and the Oilers will need to resign Cole, Horcoff, Garon and Grebeshkov(RFA, but still) at the end of the year (off the top of my head). For my money I'd rather lose Hossa but keep those three guys, and I'm not convinced you could do both. Hell, as of the day the Oilers were in the bidding war for Hossa they still needed to free up some space, and if that's Souray or maybe Roloson then fine, but I don't see it happening.

So for the grace of god the Oilers have a pretty nice looking lineup, possibly even for a few seasons to come, but it could have gone the other direction very easily.

Anatomy of a Trade(s)

2008-07-02T17:25:00.006-06:00

Yesterday at LT's I commented that the only way the last two days make a lot of sense is if you assume Pitkanen advised Lowe and the Oilers management, whether directly or indirectly, that he had no intention of re-signing with Edmonton, much in the way Pronger demanded a trade. I think if you look at the last two days not only are the moves more forgivable if you disagree with them, but they prove to actually be quite shrewed. Here's the evidence:

April 11th: Tom Gilbert is signed to a brand new $24 million/6 year contract.

April 14th: Denis Grebeshkov is signed to a one year contract.

Interpretation: Much like how Horcoff, Moreau, Pisani and Staios were signed before Smyth, the Oilers seem to prioritize the importance of their players based on the date on which they're signed. Tom Gilbert and Denis Grebeshkov were obviously higher priorities than Joni Pitkanen.

June 30th: Kevin Lowe trades Matt Greene and Jarret Stoll to the Los Angeles Kings for Lubomir Visnovsky, a puck moving defenceman in the vein of Joni Pitkanen. Lubomir Visnovsky is significantly older and more expensive than Pitkanen.

Interpretation: I'll ask one question: if there was a chance of signing Pitkanen, why trade for a(n approximate) duplicate player.

July 1: Joni Pitkanen, an RFA is traded to the Carolina Hurricanes for Eric Cole who is on the last year of a 3 year $4 million contract and is due to become a UFA at seasons end. He will almost certainly get a pay raise.

Interpretation: This could just be Lowe addressing a need and using a redundant piece to get it, but again, why the Visnovsky move? Couldn't Lowe have just traded Greene and Stoll (and potentially add Torres to the mix) for a forward like Cole? Jonathan also mentioned today that there must be a market for a guy like Souray as well, and I agree with him. Any of those guys could have been packaged for a Cole like player. So why Pitkanen?

July 2: Joni Pitkanen signs a three year deal with the Carolina Hurricanes at an average of $4 million per year ($3.5, $4.0, $4.5).

Interpretation: Pitkanen is immediately signed to a pretty reasonable $12 million/3 year, less that I (and I assume others) would have predicted he would get. About the same as Gilbert, although less years.

Length of term of course may have been an issue; Pitkanen may have not wanted to commit to Edmonton for 6 years and maybe would have taken 3 years. But then, if length of term was the issue, why trade for a guy who's signed for one year?

Add to that MacT's comments today on the Team 1260 (via Rod over at LT's):

"MacT interview on the Team 1260 (after the Katz presser) was very revealing. Topic of Pitkanen started out about a "difference in philosophy" as the reason he's gone. MacT said that was a "complimentary way of phrasing it". MacT went on to say he didn't see a commitment to win from Pitkanen (particularly a team game). Strides were made through the year though, so MacT thought they were making some progress (conversation at the end of the year reinforced that apparently).

Then, from what MacT said, Pitkanen informed the Oil he didn't want to come back. MacT figured that might become a pattern for Pitkanen and that he'll be a nomad."

I think we can safely assume by the known events and comments made by Oilers staff that Joni Pitkanen was simply uninterested in returning as an Edmonton Oiler and the Oilers built their 08-09 roster around that assumption.

That said, I think Lowe did an alright job with the hand he was dealt, mainly assuming he manages to extend Horcoff and re-sign Cole.

In Favour Of Andrew Burnette

2008-06-29T10:36:00.003-06:00

Despite the off season lull some bloggers have kept really busy, and Mirtle in particular has been pretty effective at giving everyone a lowdown on the July 1 free agents and their essential stats. Because Matt has so eloquently explained that the Flames have no 2nd line, it seems to me the FA season strategy should be to find cheap players who can play decent competition and put up even strength points. I think Andrew Brunette fits the bill:

One of the things that most caught my eye was Mirtle's lsit of EV/60 UFA/RFA scorers.

Number one on the list was Mats Sundin (2.74/60), no real suprise there. Marek Svatos (2.59/60) gets an honorary second because he's an RFA. Next on the list is Brunette (2.56/60). That's damn impressive. His quality of competition wasn't the highest at 0.1, but it's good enough for second line ice time. His quality of linemates wasn't stunning or anything like that so I don't think we can chalk up his strong EV/60 to that.

The best part about Brunette is that he wasn't only scoring a lot of points, but he was completely outplaying the opposition he was playing against. His GAON/60 was one of the worst on the team at 2.86, but his GFON/60 was 3.57. Only Statsny and Forsberg were ahead of him, and they were playing with much better team mates.

His corsi number was negative (-3.1) but I think that's a minor quibble. His stats have been pretty consistent since he broke into the NHL, scoring between about 50-80 points per year.

If I had a vote for the Flames top UFA target, Andrew Brunette would be it.

It's Finally Happened

2008-06-25T17:23:00.004-06:00

After the Flames traded away Alex Tanguay a week ago, a lot of great hockey analysts around these parts have made some great points.

1. Mike Cammalleri is not a replacement for Alex Tanguay.
2. The Flames no longer have a second line
3. This move was made a necessity due to a long line of bad deals

I agree with all these arguments. Firstly, I'd like to admit that I personally advocated for a Tanguay trade after the playoffs. I think MG made a very good point at the time though, that deal away Tanguay and the Flames probably don't even make the playoffs, that without his presence the already paper thin depth of the Flames gets that much thinner, and he was (is) obviously correct.

Look at the mock lineup Matt has put together. Now that is ugly. Matt, I think, is overly optimistic.

Actually, 4th line aside, I don't mind this lineup. Iginla w/ Cammy and DL is a solid #1 line and PP unit; Lombo between RF and Moss should be able to keep the puck going in the right direction as much as the wrong one, and maybe pot a few goals; I definitely prefer Boyd as a centre, and with Gelinas and Nilson on the wings I think that's pretty workable as an ongoing proposition.

I'm happy with the D; my present mindset is that The Warrener is still serviceable as a 3rd-pair guy. Naturally, I'd love it if Pardy or Negrin or Pelech or somebody stepped up in training camp and bumped Eriksson even further down the depth chart.

The first line, as always, is respectable. The second line? Well, I like Lombardi, and Fedotenko provides all Flames fans with some painful memories. But as much I love Moss, he is not a second liner. Neither is Gelinas, or Boyd, or etc. There are no other 2nd liners on that team (theoretical as it is).

The defence starts out not bad. Regehr, Phaneuf, even Sarich. But watching Aucoin last year he is no longer a top 4 guy. He's too slow and his decision making has gotten pretty bad. He played 5th highest QOC for Flames defenceman (Phaneuf, Regehr, Eriksson, Sarich were ahead) and did ok, (+/-ON/60 0.94, CORSI 1.4) but I wouldn't be willing to give him much, if any more responsibility. Plus, Eriksson and Warrener are still there.

Darryl Sutter might want to take a cue from one of the most incompetent franchises in sports history. The Toronto Maple Leafs have taken time during the past week and a half to start buying out dead weight. Wellwood - gone. Tucker - gone. Raycroft - gone.

Calgary has a lot of deadwood, and if there's any chance of this team competing this year in any regard, they need to get rid of it.

Darryl Sutter, if you can hear me, buy out these contracts:
Anders Eriksson - $1.5 million
Rhett Warrener - $2.35 million
Wayne Primeau - $1.4 million
Adrian Aucoin - $4.0 million

This will give you room to put together a legitimate lineup.

If the Flames don't buy out at least 2 of these contracts it will be proof that it's finally happened. The Flames are more incompetent than the Leafs.

More Draft Day Resources

2008-06-18T18:25:00.005-06:00

Browsing the internet today I found an absolutely fantastic blog for everyone looking to get some first hand scouting reports of WHLers. NHL Draft Notes is 'A Western perspective on the NHL Draft, Prospects, and the NHL Scouting Community' from Michael Remmerde, a scout and contributing editor of Redline Reports.

He goes through most if not all of the top draft eligible WHLers and Tier II Jr. league players for this draft.

MG had another excellent pre draft post in which he goes through ESPN's mock draft. They have Calgary selecting Jordan Eberle. Here's NHL Draft Notes' perspective on Eberle. Not entirely encouraging, and this note is particularly damaging:

Casual player - effort level is never there. (Source)

Of one of MG's potential mock draft guys, Joe Colborne:

Certain first rounder, and probably right in the middle near the 15th pick. I'm hearing there may be a team or two drafting near the end of the first that are trying to move up to pick him. In any case, it seems unlikely he slide lower than the 16th-18th overall range. (Source)

You can also read about Matt Calvert here and Kyle Beach here.

You never know what you're going to find on that there internet.

If You're Looking for Great NHL Draft Coverage

2008-06-17T21:45:00.005-06:00

Look somewhere else.

I mean seriously, I've been absolutely overwhelmed by the tremendous coverage being undertaken by the good blogocitizens of these parts. Lowetide has four draft week posts already. This is a great quote taken from Draft Week Post 3:

The 2002 trade that saw them send Jochen Hecht to Buffalo for 2 second-rounders featured Darcy Regier looking like he was about to pass out with glee on the draft floor. Seriously. (Lowetide)

In Draft Week post 2 Lowetide gives us Desjardins NHL Equivilents on some of the top prospects heading into the draft and Draft Week post 1 gives us some insight into where Kevin Lowe likes selecting his players from.

YKOil has done so much on the draft in the last two months I have barely scratched the surface. I think there must be 100 odd hours of work at play there.

On the Flames side MG has done a couple fantastic draft posts. One is a 5 year review and one is a preview for the upcoming draft. I think in the review MG is actually a bit too kind to Sutter as his performance review is pretty bad by the numbers.

Hoping to get a Flames/Oilers draft comparison done here in the next couple days. Wish me luck...

Stephen Colbert Says It Best

2008-06-11T22:58:00.001-06:00

Everything seems better when you have the HNIC theme playing along with it.

FUCKING OUTRAGEOUS

2008-06-05T22:53:00.003-06:00

I tend to try and leave my personal criticisms of networks and policies etc. out of this blog, but this is absolutely devastating. I feel a piece of Canadian History and a part of my life is being written off the books simply for the sake of a few dollars.

"What has long been known as Canada's "second national anthem," CBC's Hockey Night in Canada theme song, will no longer be used.

Thursday night's Stanley Cup final game six was the last time "dunt- da-dunt- da-dunt," was played, according to the song's composer. CBC has announced the corporation is moving in a "new direction."

The theme, one of the longest running in broadcast history, was composed by Dolores Claman in 1968. The current licence expired at the end of the 2007-2008 NHL playoffs and the news release said CBC has decided not to renew.

It costs the CBC $500 to use the theme for each game broadcast of Hockey Night in Canada."(Source)

Alberta's premier responds:

"'This is ridiculous," Stelmach said as the Alberta legislature's spring session wrapped up Thursday...Aside from O Canada, the Maple Leaf Forever, really the Hockey Night in Canada theme, I mean we hear it everywhere, even during the summer...You get to a barbecue in rural Alberta and somebody strikes it up after a good volume of O Canada, and it's going to disappear?'"(Source)

Draw your own conclusions. There is a facebook group called "Save the Hockey Night in Canada Song!" that's already been started. I suggest if you care you join.

Team Canada World Hockey Championships 2008 - Gold Medal Game Thoughts

2008-05-18T11:43:00.007-06:00

1st Intermission

After 20 minutes Canada has a 3-1 lead based on goals from Burns (2) and Kunitz (1), but I don't think Canada has been the runaway better team. If you've been watching the broadcast you'll see Canada has gotten a couple of breaks on penalties going both ways (a non call against Canada and a bad call on Russia).

Russia, especially the 'Capital Punishment' line of Semin, Ovechkin and Fedorov, have been extremely dangerous each time they've been on the ice and have a goal (Semin, from Ovechkin) to show for it.

Hitchcock has clearly decided on a power vs. power strategy and is playing Heatley, Getzlaf and Nash against the Capital Punishment line. It's hard to tell if MacT is trying to match Hamhuis/Bouwmeester against that line or Burns/Keith or if he's decided either of them would be fine. We lost sight of the Capital Punishment line for nearly 6 minutes while Russia tried to kill off a couple consecutive Canadian PPs.

Brent Burns has been the story of this game so far for Canada scoring two goals. Burns' first goal was a shot from the point after making a great play to fake out the shotblocker, it came just after a Russian penalty expired. His second goal was a 5-3 PP marker on which Heatley fanned on a shot that St. Louis redirected to Burns out in front. Really a fantastic play by Martin St. Louis on the play.

Spezza has been a real story as well, he's been playing very simple smart hockey and I've even seen him throw his body around. Ottawa might want to take note, it's possible to ring Spezza in a bit and still have him contribute.

Jovanovski has really imposed himself in this game and leads all Canadians with over 9 minutes of ice time. He set the tone early with a huge hit off the opening faceoff and he's just looked fantastic.

Duncan Keith with a slash at the end of the period and Canada has to kill off the majority of the penalty still and the Russians get fresh ice here at the beginning of the second.

Canadians are outshooting the Russians 15-5.

2nd Intermission

A much closer period for Canada, and IMO what we saw was simply an inability of Canada's top line to handle Russia's top line. A smart in-game adjustment by Ken Hitchcock and by the second half of the period we saw Doan, Toews and Roy playing the Capital Punishment line. I like the change a lot, let your captain go up against their top player. The level of commitment Doan has in identifying Ovechkin was obvious when he avoided an obviously loose puck to slam Ovechkin physically. So far he's the only one who's been able to match Ovechkin in the physical department, as all of Bouwmeester, Burns, Hamhuis have been victimized by number 8's explosivity along the wall and in races for loose pucks.

The move also freed up Heatley/Nash/Getzlaf to score a goal of their own for a tie for Canada in the period.

We're also seeing some real running around in the defensive zone for Team Canada. Canada has really had trouble identifying their defensive zone assignments and as a result the Russians have had some absolutely top quality chances from the slot and high slot. It cost Canada on their first goal and it almost cost them a couple times in the second.

Breakouts have also been an issue for Canada. On their SH goal against, as Pierre Maguire mentioned, Canada had 3-4 chances to get the puck out and failed. They've had issues getting the puck to their wingers on the boards with the Russian forwards in very good position to pick off passes along the boards.

Craig MacTavish continued to favour having Jovonovski on the ice but Canada's top defenceman in ice time for the second was Duncan Keith whom he played just over 8 minutes. Doan, Toews and Kunitz all saw their icetime increase up front by about a minute, partially due to reassignments and partially due to increased 5-5 time.

Watch for the Russians to continue to shoot from the outside hashmarks and hope Ward kicks out a rebound to a streaking Russian player. I feel it's a set play and Canada has gotten lucky in that they haven't connected yet.

I didn't feel Canada did a perfect job in the third against the Swedes as it got very close towards the end. After dominating that game in the faceoff dot they lost several late game faceoffs in a row. Third periods have not been kind to Canada, so we'll see if they can lock it down.

Staal, St. Louis and Kunitz bounced back from a bad game vs. Sweden and are playing what I think is their finest game of the tournament.

Russia outshot Canada 12-8.

3rd Intermission

Well, once again Canada's worst period is the third and now we're all tied up going to 4-4 Sudden Death. 20 minutes of OT then a shootout.

Despite the fact Canada was outshot 13-6 the two goals against weren't scored because of defensive zone assignment breakdowns or anything like that which is good news. The Russians have a couple lucky ones this game but their philosophy is all about throwing pucks on/at net and you have to expect once in a while they'll get a bounce.

Certainly the story of the game for me has been the Capital Punishment line outplaying the Heatly/Nash/Getzlaf line. Sure, Canada's top line is on the board but they just haven't been very dangerous on the whole. Ovechkin Federov and Semin on the other hand are getting about one high quality scoring chance per shift. Ovechkin is a +2 while Heatley Nash and Getzlaf are only even.

Hamhus was MacT's go to defenceman that period (8:49 ice time) but the standout performance by a defenceman in that period went to Staios. Just playing really smart in his own zone, not panicking on 1-1s and as always he's blocking a bunch of shots. Jovonovski's ice time was reduced again this period but he still leads all Canadian defenceman. Brett Burns is catching up though.

For their part, Russia shortened their bench. Two players Maxim Sushinski and Konstantin Gorovikov, both -2 in this game, didn't even see the ice. Obviously Ovechkin was played to the bone, trailing only Alexei Morozov and Sergei Zinoviev for ice time that period on the Russian bench. I would expect that to continue.

OT predictions: Shane Doan for Team Canada, or (who else) Alexandre Ovechkin for the Russians.

Final:

Ilya Kovalchuk blows one by Ward for the win.

The Russians really deserved this game, they outplayed Canada for large stretches. They just had a terrific game plan, all offense all the time, and credit their coach, Bykov, for going for it every chance he got. He played 4 forwards on the PP that won the game and there was just too much firepower for Canada to handle. Full credit and congratulations has to go to Team Russia, there is no argument from me about how good they were, and maybe a sign of a Russia's resurgence.

I wanted to write about the game vs. Sweden and never got the chance, but there's something that really disturbed me about that game. It wasn't so much that Canada leaned heavily on Heatley/Nash/Getzlaf, as they had a terrific game scoring 3 goals. It was that all of Canada's goals in that game relied so heavily on unbelievable individual efforts. This team had talent, but it never did become much of a team. It reminded me a lot of Canada's 2005 lockout edition. That team rode the success of one line, Nash, Thornton and Gagne, which was shutout in the final vs. the Czech Republic. That team had a lot of talent as well, but like this one, it wasn't much of a team.

Nash, Heatley and Getzlaf did not have a great game today, I wouldn't even say they had a good game. Their one goal against Nabokov seemed like a weak one to me, and they played most of the game in the defensive or neutral zone. Was it a product of stiffer competition in team Russia, fatigue, or some other factor? I don't know, but they weren't impressive.

I have to feel for Nash though taking the penalty on the game winner. A lot of people will probably blame him for the loss but there was 5 goals against Canada not just 1. There were a lot of breakdowns (Patrick Sharpe played arguably his worst game) by a lot of players.

I'll write more about this later, now I just want to sulk.

Team Canada World Hockey Championships 2008 - Is This Team For Real?

2008-05-15T19:50:00.004-06:00

About halfway through the game vs. Norway I thought to myself; 'this team is going nowhere.' Then they scored 6 straight goals.

I'm used to a range of inconsistency in the World Hockey Championships, the nature of the tournament (short) and the players (young) makes for a perfect cocktail of inconsistency. But Canada should never be in a tight game with Norway, let alone two.

In the 2006 World Championships Team Canada went unbeaten in the round robin and qualifying rounds and then disposed of Slovakia 4-1 in the quarter finals. In the semifinal Canada played Sweden.

Now, the very recent history of these two teams in the World Championships has been generally favourable to Team Canada. There were a couple of very good Swedish teams that Canada faced in the finals, Swedish teams that were more than expected to win it all, facing Canadian teams featuring half of the Oilers roster including Cory Cross, Anson Carter, Mike Comrie, Sean Horcoff and of course, Steve Staios and Ryan Smyth. The Canadian squad came out on top two years in a row, 2003 and 2004, the first time with a disputed OT goal by Anson Carter, the second time in a come from behind effort featuring a then mostly unknown goaltender playing for Sweden named Henrik Lundqvist.

That game in the 2006 World Championships semis did not go well for Canada. It was 2-0 Sweden before Canada even blinked, and then 5-2 just a couple minute into the second period. Canada scored one with less than a minute left in the second and scored early in the 3rd, Canada got very close several times but it was too much of a deficit to overcome. They played the bronze medal game the next day and had nothing left emotionally or physically having spent it all trying to overcome the Swedish onslaught. As is usual with Canada, it's Gold medal game or nothing, and they lost 0-5 to the Finns in the bronze medal game.

This team has better depth and better high end talent than that 2006 edition of Team Canada. They literally have three lines that can light it up at any time and a 4th line that just looks plain mean out there most of the time. They have a defensive group who worst performer (according to ice time) has probably been Jay Bouwmeester. In net that year Canada had Alex Auld and Marc Denis - this year they have former Conn Smythe (and WC Gold) winner Cam Ward and top NHL shutout man Pascal Leclaire. This team also gets to play on small ice.

Look, this is a good hockey team. 30 NHL GMs would love to have this roster - but anything can happen in a single game. No disrespect to Sweden, but this team could even lose to a roster whose top line consists of Niklas Backstrom, Tony Martensson and Patric Hornqvist. Especially if that Swedish roster employs one Henrik Lundqvist.

2 MURRAY Douglas D- 0-0-0 +2 - 13:41
5 FERNHOLM Daniel D - 0-3-3 +2 - 14:53
7 WALLIN Niclas D -1-1-2 +2 - 15:50
36 STRALMAN Anton D - 2-3-5 - 16:19
24 FROGREN Jonas D - 0-3-3 +8 - 17:57
29 JONSSON Kenny D - 2-4-6 +3 - 19:23
23 EDLER Alexander D - 1-2-3 +4 19:36
6 JOHANSSON Magnus D - 1-2-3 +2 22:53

I would imagine that Johansson and Edler get the undesirable task of shutting down Heatley Getzlaf and Nash, although it's not entirely obvious what the pairings are. As can be seen, this defensive group is actually pretty even top to bottom in terms of point and plus minus distribution. This is both a sign of a good defensive group and a team that's been successful, especially in terms of even strength. Their team is a combined +72, which although pales in respect to Canada's +114, it at least shows that Sweden is winning the even strength battle by about 2 goals per game.

Murray, Wallin and Stralman are their top penalty takers so look for Canada to try and exploit both Murray and Stralman with the Heatley Getzlaf Nash line. It's my opinion that Canada has been playing Burns and Aucoin with the top line, so expect Staios and Hamhuis to be up against the Backstrom/Martenson/Hornqvist line. I might be jinxing the poor guy by saying this, but Staios has yet to be on for an ES goal against.

It's hard to say how Team Canada coaches reacted to Ward's game vs. Norway. I didn't feel he had much of a chance on either goal, but it sounds like Pascal Leclaire will be starting tomorrow. Is this part of a general plan or reaction to Ward's game? Only Hitchcock and the rest of the Team Canada staff knows.

Some intangibles:
Now that Sweden is the underdog and Canada is the favorite, how will Canada react? Can the Swedes take advantage of a Canadian team that knows they're expected to win?

What is the deal with Marcus Nilson? He has 4 goals, 2 assists and is +4 playing only about 3 minutes more a game than with the Flames.

The Tre Kroner roster also features Oilers rookie Robert Nilsson. He's getting about the same ice time as Nilson and is 2-3-5 +5.

How will Eric Staal play, and where will he be slotted in? Although the line was broken up halfway through the game, with Derek Roy being slotted in between Doan and Toews, the St. Louis, Spezza, Roy line wasn't half bad. I thought Spezza did a lot of good things, although he still isn't doing enough IMO. For my money he gets put back between Chimera and Mayers.

Does Kunitz get put back with Doan and Toews, or does Roy stay with that tandem. Personally I like Roy with them because it gives that line so much tenacity. I think it'll depend on how Hitchcock wants to line match, or if he wants to line match. Doan Toews and Kunitz become more of a shutdown line together, and more of an offensive line apart. I think Hitch will go the offense route.

How will Canada respond in the third period? If they have a lead, can they hold it?

Canada plays Sweden tomorrow at 2:50 MST. Game on TSN and tsn.ca.

Team Canada World Hockey Championships 2008 - Quarterfinals Notes

2008-05-13T19:56:00.007-06:00

Canada and Norway faced each other once in the qualifying portion of this tournament. Canada won 2-1 on the strength of a late 3rd period goal by Rick Nash.

Eric Staal will miss the game to attend the funeral of his grandfather

Jason Spezza will take Staal's spot on the second line

"I believe in karma...I think I've handled the situation pretty good and tried to be pretty positive with it...hopefully, I can contribute in the latter part (of the event) when the games mean a lot here down the stretch."(TSN)

Sam Gagner will be subbing in for Staal, it will be his first time in a game situation since Canada's final exhibition game vs. Finland

"I think there's more nerves watching than actually playing...obviously when you're playing you have a little more control. When you're not, it's a little tougher."(TSN)

Cam Ward is expected to start

In their only meeting so far this tournament Canada outshot Norway 52-16

Norway's only goal against Team Canada was scored while shorthanded by Mads Hansen.

Goaltender Pal Grotnes played pretty much the best game of his career, he was terrific and is the key player for Norway

Morten Ask is Norway's leading goal scorer with 2

They have 2 players tied for points lead with 4 - Anders Bastiansen and Morten Ask

After narrowly losing to Team Canada, Norway was smoked out of the water by a pissed off Team USA

Team USA put 4 less shots at Norway than did Canada

Team Norway defeated Team Canada 4-3 in the World Championships back in 2000

Team Canada is ranked 1st in scoring efficiency (GF/SF) with 35/247

Team Norway is ranked 14th in scoring efficiency with 9/125

Canada's PP is ranked 5th with a 25% efficiency

Norway's PP is ranked 12th with a 13.33% efficiency

Canada's PK is ranked 2nd with an 88% efficiency

Norway's PK is ranked 13th with a 73.68% efficiency

Canada is the 12th most penalized team, Norway is the 10th

Canada's goaltending ranks #1 by SV% (.932) and (GAA 1.67)

Norway's goaltending ranks #12 by SV% (.889) and 10th in GAA (4.17)

Canada's top faceoff ace is Patrick Sharp with 42 wins and 20 losses, Toews is second with 46 wins and 22 losses

Expect Team Canada to go with similar ice times to the rest of this tournament, there shouldn't be any defensive pairings that can't handle Norway's top guns, and there shouldn't be any defensive pairings on Norways that can stop Nash/Getzlaf/Heatley.

According to the numbers, this should be a blowout. That means all the pressure is on Team Canada, and none on Norway and their merry band of day labourers.

If Canada loses this game it will be nothing less then an absolute catastrophe. Remember, Norway is no joke.

Finally, I keep meaning to throw up a couple links to Staple's Cult of Hockey. He's been tracking errors for Team Canada's goal against, although I haven't seen his evaluation of Canada vs. Finland.

Team Canada World Hockey Championships 2008 - Finland vs. Canada Postgame

2008-05-12T20:05:00.004-06:00

I feel pretty confident in saying that Canada's 6-3 victory over Team Finland was Canada's most complete game of the tournament. Just a quick breakdown of what I saw in the game:

The Good
Higher Quality Chances - The shots were down this game (22) compared to say the game vs Norway (52), but Canada is really burying their chances. Canada had a little help today (Doan puts one off a stick which then deflects off a shoulder and into the net) but in general they just created high quality chances (Getzlaf in alone, Doan in alone, Sharpe in alone, Heatley in alone, Heatley in the slot...) and then let their talent level do the talking.

This ignores the post and the time Nash and Getzlaf got in alone and neither could get a hold of the puck.

There was at least one post as well.

And finally it seems like all 4 lines are contributing in one way or another. Spezza is actually creating chances and limiting his giveaways, Doan, Toews and Kunitz have been very smart (although I feel Toews has been a bit underwhelming, he's been playing smart but I think he's a step behind his linemates), and we all saw St. Louis, Roy and Staal light it up vs. Germany.

The Bad
No Lock Down - It's disheartening to see Canada winning by 4 goals in the third period, adding another goal, but only winning by 3. Third periods with big leads have not been particularly impressive for Canada. Third periods have not been impressive for Canada in general.

VS. Team USA
-2 goal lead early in third
-win by 1 goal with under a minute left

VS. Latvia
-7 goal lead going into third
-0 goals scored in third, Latvia carried most of play

VS. Germany
-10 goal lead early in third
-Germany scores only goal, Canada wins 10-1

We all saw what happened with Finland.

Obviously I'm being overly critical here, as most of these games were blowouts, but Canada needs to insure they play as well in the third as they have the other 2 periods.

The Suprising
I think judging from defenceman ice times we can conclude a couple of things:

Craig MacTavish has a high level of say of who goes on and when. Steve Staios is probably more of a third pairing defenceman on this team, not so much because he isn't a capable defenceman, but because this is a star studded group. But he's played the fourth most minutes for Canada and despite what I've judged as some poor decision making at times, he's got a very respectable +/-, good enough to be tied for third on the team. No small feat considering by my eye he's playing against the other team's top lines while Burns and Duncan play with the Heatley/Nash/Getzlaf line against the other team's shutdown lines.

8 BURNS Brent D 6 1 5 6 8 +10 0 0 0 0 22 4.55 114:08
22 KEITH Duncan D 6 0 1 1 2 +9 0 0 0 0 6 0.00 105:44

2 HAMHUIS Dan D 6 1 1 2 8 +5 0 0 0 0 5 20.00 101:27
24 STAIOS Steve D 6 0 0 0 2 +7 0 0 0 0 6 0.00 99:33

55 JOVANOVSKI Ed D 6 0 1 1 4 +4 0 0 0 0 13 0.00 96:30
4 BOUWMEESTER Jay D 6 0 0 0 0 +2 0 0 0 0 5 0.00 91:17

52 GREEN Mike D 6 3 3 6 2 +1 0 0 2 0 30 10.00 88:26

The other thing we can see by this grouping is MacTavish's distaste for chaos defenceman. I think we can classify Jovonovski and Green in that group, and they're getting the least amount of ice time. I think we can also see that he prefers to pair a steady guy with a chaos defenceman (ala Bouwmeester with Jovonvski, and often Hamhuis/Keith with Green unless on the PP).

I wonder if we can conclude anything about how MacTavish sees Bouwmeester though. Is Bouwmeester being played so sparesly because he's paired with Jovonovski and he doesn't add as much on the PP as Green or Jovonovski, or because he just doesn't see Bouwmeester as being very good. It seems my dream of the Oilers acquiring Bouwmeester isn't very realistic.

Team Canada World Hockey Championships 2008 - Finland vs. Canada Pregame

2008-05-11T20:40:00.003-06:00

Well, Canada made short work of Germany on Saturday, obliterating them 10-1. It was nice to see the Canadians dominate in every aspect of the game so thoroughly, but I couldn't help but feel bad for the Germans. After the second goal they very uncharacteristically lost their composure and Canada just kept coming. Staal with 4 goals, St. Louis with 5 assists and even Spezza with a goal.

The real game to watch this weekend was this afternoon's tilt between Team USA and Finland. The Americans go into the final frame with a 2 goal lead but completely melt down after a bizarro world goal review gives Finland a shred of hope. Ville Koistinen puts one through the side of the net and the goal review judge calls it a legit goal (he was later fired...seriously). The Americans are absolutely incensed (and rightfully so) and proceed to completely melt down. James Wisniewski takes an absolutely idiotic penalty when he hits Tuomo Ruutu well after the whistle and the comeback is complete.

The game gets even crazier as the final whistle blows.

At the end of the game there was a melee with players getting into physical confrontations, including a fight between David Backes and Anssi Salmela, who was bloodied. Both received match penalties...

Matt Greene and Antti-Jussi Niemi both received leaving the bench penalties and game misconducts. Teemu Selanne was assessed roughing minors; Dustin Brown was assessed a checking to the head and neck minor and a misconduct...

For Jokinen, Backes, and Salmela, their match penalties draw an automatic one-game suspension. All three will miss their team's next game, and their actions are subject to automatic review which will take place on Tuesday, the day before the quarter-finals...

Jokinen and Salmela will be lost for Finland's next game against Canada to decide the winner of Group F. Backes will be lost for Team USA's game against Norway....(IIHF)

It gets even crazier when you consider that if Team USA loses to Norway tommorow then it will be Norway who moves onto the quarterfinal. We all know that Norway should not be taken lightly.

All of this does have some consequences for Canada's game against the Finns on Monday. Firstly, the Finns are second in the pool with 11 pts (to Canada's 12) so this matchup affects who will place first in the pool.

This is not the first time the two teams have met in this tournament. The Finns beat Canada in and exhibition game 4-2 and a very consistent effort. Finland put in a pretty consistent effort today against Team USA today, outshooting them 45-22, and except for a heroic effort from Robert Esche (Player of the Game for Team USA)it would have been a much different game.

Here's a quick overview of Finland's ice time leaders:

Forward:
Ville Peltonen - 109:41/5 = 21.94 - 1-3-4 +1
Saku Koivu - 41:13/2 = 20.61* - 0-2-2 +1 played only 2 games
Mikko Koivu - 101:12/5 = 20.24 - 3-3-6 +1
Teemu Selanne - 95:43/5 = 19.14 - 3-2-5 +1

Other notables:
Antti Pihlstrom - 54:09/5= 10.83 - 1-2-3 +5

Defence:
Ossi Vaananen - 82:39/5 - 0-1-1 +1
Ville Koistinen - 80:41/5 - 1-1-2 +3
Janne Niskala - 75:53/5 -0-2-2 +2
Annsi Salmela - 74:14/5* - 0-0-0 +0 - suspended

In net the Finns have one of the most successful goaltenders in the tournament thus far. Niklas Backstrom is second only to Pascal Leclaire in SV% (.946), has a 1.50 GAA.

Finland has been one of the most consistent teams in this tourny and has followed Canada's footsteps. They beat Germany by 3, Norway by 1, Slovakia by 1, Latvia by 1 and Team USA by 1. Sound familiar?

This is Canada's last game before the elimination round. TSN at 1:20, or at TSN.ca.

Additionally, Mirtle has had a couple of interesting thoughts about the tournament and I keep meaning to link them. Read them here, here, here and here.

Justice!!

2008-05-11T19:54:00.003-06:00

If you watched the Dallas Stars face the Detroit Red Wings yesterday, or if you watched any highlight shows, you'll be familiar with Mike Ribeiro's 'slash' on Chris Osgood. If you didn't catch it, watch the clip below.

The NHL announced today there will be fines for Steve Ott, Mike Ribeiro and yes, even Chris Osgood, but there will be no suspensions.

Now, I'm not going to claim that Mike Ribeiro was in the right here. Clearly this was the act of a desperate and very frustrated man, and in no way is a two hand slash to the chest acceptable.

That said, what Chris Osgood did was simply an embarrassment. The way he went down one would have likely concluded Osgood had taken a hit to the head or blown an ACL, and the way he stayed down implied there was no chance of him possibly returning to play later in the series, let alone happily answer reporters questions after the game. Christ, I thought he was due in ICU for at least a month. I would hope somebody at least provided Osgood with a band-aid.

"I do have a lot of padding up there but it got me in the side where I didn't have much," he said of the Ribeiro slash. "It did hurt a bit.

"It was kind of a full swing right to the side. But I'll be fine, I'm sure. A little sore, but I'll be fine." (TSN)

Is Osgood going for an Oscar or a Cup?

Forget the fact Osgood gets paid to take 90MPH pucks off his chest for a living, that slash wouldn't have hurt a man without an Ironman-like chest protector.

Again, what Ribeiro did was classless and I would have fully supported a Ribeiro suspension, but there is no way the league can look at the incident on replays and ignore the triple lutz that occurs right after the slash. Ribeiro made himself look bad, Osgood made the game look bad and practically dared the league to support his clown act.

Good on the NHL for washing their hands of the whole incident.

Team Canada World Hockey Championships 2008 - Norway Is No Joke

2008-05-08T17:37:00.008-06:00

For all those Canadians who were feeling smug about the Swedes getting beaten by Switzerland, here's your wakeup call: Those European teams that used to simply be punching bags for Canada and Russia are now legitimate hockey teams. Outside shots to win any game, but they are in every game.

Norway and Germany beat out Slovakia in Group C and Switzerland won it's division (hey, we knew they were good when they beat Canada's freaking best on best team in Turin 2006).

Make no mistake, Norway is no pushover. Still, it shouldn't have been that close.

Despite the fact this team is 4-0, right now, I think they've become a great example of a flawed philosophy. We all know who the top line is, Nash, Getzlaf and Heatley, and rightfully so, with so much talent on the team and so many duplicate player types, take a look at the icetime breakdown for forwards. The following list has the ice time for Canada vs. Norway in the first column, average TOI/G in the NHL regular season in the next column, and the difference between the two in the third.

Jason Spezza - 6:52 (20:40) - 13.8
Jason Chimera - 5:28 (17:29) - 12.01
Jamal Meyers - 5:07 (15:55) - 10.8
Eric Staal - 12:07 (21:38) - 9.52
Martin St. Louis - 16:09 (24:17) - 8.13
Jonathan Toews - 10:44 (18:40) - 7.93
Patrick Sharp - 11:01 (18:46 ) - 7.75
Shane Doan - 13:18 (20:45) - 7.45
Derek Roy - 14:46 (20:58 ) - 6.2
Rick Nash - 14:51 (20:29) - 5.63
Dany Heatley - 16:33 (21:44) - 5.18
Chris Kunitz - 11:56 (16:54 ) - 4.97
Ryan Getzlaf - 17:43 (19:38) - 1.92

In terms of TOI vs. Norway I can understand the justifications here. We get the 'scoring' line, plus the two ultra small but ultra versatile (to steal from Maguire) players in Roy and St. Louis getting the most ice time. For my money, by the way, no one is creating more chances offensively than Rick Nash.

This is the next group of 5, and besides Staal, I think this is the group that get's it done in the two way game. Despite this we haven't seen much actual offence from them, nor have we really seen their physical side.

Finally, we get the 'grinders' (and Spezza) who are supposed to play a physical and create energy.

Now let's reorder this list by pts scored.

Jason Chimera - 5:28 (17:29) - 12.01 - 0-0-0
Jason Spezza - 6:52 (20:40) - 13.8 - 0-1-0
Jamal Meyers - 5:07 (15:55) - 10.8 - 0-1-1
Patrick Sharp - 11:01 (18:46 ) - 7.75 - 1-0-1
Jonathan Toews - 10:44 (18:40) - 7.93 - 1-0-1
Eric Staal - 12:07 (21:38) - 9.52 - 0-2-2
Shane Doan - 13:18 (20:45) - 7.45 - 0-2-2
Martin St. Louis - 16:09 (24:17) - 8.13 - 2-1-3
Derek Roy - 14:46 (20:58 ) - 6.2 - 1-2-3
Chris Kunitz - 11:56 (16:54 ) - 4.97 - 1-3-4
Ryan Getzlaf - 17:43 (19:38) - 1.92 - 0-6-6
Rick Nash - 14:51 (20:29) - 5.63 - 3-4-7
Dany Heatley - 16:33 (21:44) - 5.18 - 6-4-10

Here is a line graph of ice time difference vs. production:

The pink line represents the difference in ice time between a players TOI/G avg in the regular season, while the blue line represents points scored. As is clear, the less time difference, the higher level of production. Of course, this could be due to the fact less ice time difference represents greater ice time total. So below is a graph comparing minutes per game in the tournament vs. production:

We can see there is still a correlation there, but to me, without doing any sort of actual statistical analysis, the ice time line is actually fairly stable or at least somewhat spotty, while the point scoring line trends upwards. Now don't get me wrong, there is a correlation, just to my eye, it doesn't seem as strong.

Now I've admitted that the energy line doesn't have the job of scoring, so judging their effectiveness by points alone is a bit unfair, but to my eye, especially with Spezza on that line, they are not grinding down teams, playing them physical or using their speed effectively. (A flaw on my methodology would be comparing time difference between regular ice time and this game in particular rather than tournament avg TOI/G, but I just don't want to redo it, and this game in particular was particularly disturbing to me).

To be fair to Team Canada, they outshot the Norweigians 53-16, and I think Norway maybe had 3 scoring chances the entire game (congrats to Hansen on a beautiful shorthanded breakaway in the second, an absolutely clutch goal by the Norweigian) and Pal Grotnes, the Norweigian goaltender played the game of his life...still...

The only good news is that I have seen Canada put in very similar lacklustre efforts in this tournament and still come out on top in the end.

A final note: The Canadians need to watch their sticks, high sticking penalties are absolutely killing them.

Canada said they had learned their lesson after barely taking the Americans. Did they?

Fuck You Dion

2008-05-06T22:25:00.002-06:00

Seriously though, I can't blame the guy. I'm just jealous.

You know, I would apologize about this post because I'd prefer to stay out of player's private lives altogether, but I'm pretty sure the both of them froliking in front of the cameras like that is just their way of mocking me.

Team Canada World Hockey Championships 2008 - Entertainment

2008-05-06T17:37:00.005-06:00

With those beauty 76' heritage jerseys on, you knew it was going to be a barnburner, but the ending resembled the end of game 3 against the Soviets in 87' more than Sittler's game winner against the Czechs in 76'.

Team USA had the unfortunate opportunity to test whether Heatley Nash and Getzlaf actually had chemistry or it was artificially created chemistry through poor opposition.

Turns out the trio appear to be able to get it done against real opposition as well.

Dany Heatley scored with 10 seconds left in the first period as well as 47 seconds left in the third to bury Team USA 5-4.

It came down to the wire, but it really shouldn't have had to. Team Canada jumped up to a 3-0 lead only 18 seconds into the 2nd, but allowed Team USA to crawl back into the game twice. First Jay Bouwmeester loses Zach Parise in front of Canada's net, and then a sloppy defensive change Canada allows Patrick O'Sullivan in on a breakaway. Both Team USA players, to note, were on that underdog 2004 World Junior team that beat Canada for the gold.

Derek Roy scored early in the 3rd to give Canada another 2 goal advantage, but Pierre Maguire called it in his pregame when he said Team USA's tournament best PP would be a factor. After Team Canada neatly killing off a trifecta of penalties in the first period, the American PP was huge in the third, scoring on two consecutive PPs to tie the game. Heatley looked like a goat on the tieing goal when he took a really unnecessary roughing penalty.

From then on it was a lot of back and forth, and Jason Chimera had probably the absolute best chance of the period, firing the puck high on a glorious open net opportunity, but in a scene that I personally found a little bit reminiscent of Lemieux's famous goal in 1987 in game 3 of the Canada Cup, Getzlaf, Nash and Heatley, along with Jovonovski rushed the puck up the ice and Heatley fired Nash's one timer pass through Craig Anderson to give the Canadians the win.

It's hard to identify the matchup game Torterella was trying to play against the Nash/Heatley/Getzlaf line. Judging purely by ice time, here is how Tortorella sees his defenceman:

Paul Martin - 22:31
Matt Greene - 17:51
Timothy Gleason - 15:37
Mark Stuart - 15:08
Tom Gilbert - 14:41
Keith Ballard - 12:38
James Wisniewski - 5:58

Note that this represents total ice time and is not broken into special teams or even strength.

Given that Nash/Heatley/Getzlaf all played about 15 minutes it isn't obvious who was assigned to who, and it's hard to judge if that line was scoring when it's assigned coverage was on, or when they were off. For instance, here is the lineup for Team USA on Heatley's first: 2 12 77 83 88 Here is the lineup on for Heatley's second: 5 17 22 23 29.

Where is timeonice.com when you need it?

Team USA for their part, had no problem identifying their top player: Zach Parise. He played 20:43, had a goal and assist and 5 shots on net. He was heavily counted upon in the third with 8:30 in ice time. I think for better or worse USA hockey is saying Parise is going to be the face of Team USA for some time.

The biggest question for me coming out of this win is whether Canada's victory was because they took Team USA too lightly, because Team USA is just that good, because Canada let up, or because in this tournament Canada is often just good enough. I just hope Canada does not believe they will win this tournament because of some notion of birthright.

Team Canada World Hockey Championships 2008 - The First Test

2008-05-05T17:40:00.005-06:00

With all apologies to Slovenia and Latvia, they are both second rate teams, especially compared to Canada. Anze Kopitar played a terrific game for Slovenia, with a breakaway in the third that had the opportunity to bring the game within two goals, and Latvia played with a lot of heart as well. Their number one goaltender, Edgars Masalskis, had a bit of a meltdown early in the second to put the game totally out of reach, but either Canada played a poor 3rd period or Latvia played really well, because they were nearly matching Canada for chances. I suppose it's hard to criticize a team that wins 7-0, but Canada really lost focus in the third period.

Right now the top line for Canada is Dany Heatley, Rick Nash and Ryan Getzlaf, and there is a lot of talk about their amazing chemistry. Heatley has is 4-4-8 +6, Nash is 2-2-4 +4 and Getzlaf is 0-4-4 +5, and for those record keepers out there, Heatley has surpassed Steve Yzerman to gain the all time points lead for Canada in the World Championships with 40pts in 36 games (1 more than Yzerman).

Impressive counting numbers to be sure, but I would love the see the Desjardins numbers for this tournament for quality of competition vs the Heatley-Nash-Getzlaf line. I sincerely hope that they keep even half the pace they're on, but the idea of 'chemistry' against such lesser opponents is a bit suspect. Christ, I couldn't score a goal to save my life, but put me on a line with a couple of my teammates against a bunch of 8 year olds and I would look like I had fantastic 'chemistry.'

Next up for Team Canada is a pretty strong Team USA, and I say that because any team boasting Tim Thomas in net is going to be difficult to beat. I've never really written about Thomas, but he has to be one of the greatest sports comeback stories of all time. You can read the whole story here, but needless to say that making the NHL at 31 and becoming quite the quality goaltender is a singular accomplishment unto itself. The fact that by all reports he is a good guy and is more than willing to play for his country (appearances for Team USA in 95, 96, 98, 05) and I can't help but admire the guy.

The Americans don't have a pushover roster either. I like their defensive group: Keith Ballard, Matt Greene, Tom Gilbert, Paul Martin as well as the youngster James Wisniewski. Up front they boast youngsters Phil Kessel, David Booth, Patrick O'Sullivan, Patrick Kane, Zach Parise, Peter Mueller, Jason Pominville (traitor), as well veteran and team Captain Jeff Halpern (who actually finished a +2 on Tampa).

Every team in this tournament has selected one game to wear a heritage jersey of their choice in honour of this being the 100th Anniversary of the IIHF World Hockey Championships, and tomorrow will be wearing the same jerseys worn from 1976-1991 at the Canada Cup, but it's specifically to remember that 1976 team that was famous as much for one great blueliner's last hurrah (Orr) as one great blueliner's coming out party (Potvin). That team is currently holding a reunion in Halifax.

For me, this game will be the best of the tournament. It's still prelim, so there aren't any real consequences to a loss besides positioning for the round robin portion of the tournament. No pressure, just good hockey. Coverage starts at 1:20MST/3:2oEST on TSN.

Team Canada World Hockey Championships 2008 - Differing Philosophies

2008-05-01T17:37:00.003-06:00

Reading Dan Barnes' article today, it seems Team Canada is set on their philosophy of rolling 4 lines, no line matching and letting the chips fall where they may.

Some highlights:

Team Canada head coach Ken Hitchcock said he's going to throw his physical firepower out on the Halifax Metro Centre ice and not worry too much about who occupies the other sweaters.(Calgary Herald)

I'm not saying this philosophy WON'T work, Canada has so much talent, it's hard not to buy into this idea. But automatically assuming that whoever Canada puts out will be better than whomever the opposition will put out is both lazy and disrespectful. It's certainly not prudent.

"We're not going to spend a lot of time worrying on the opposition. You can almost get overwhelmed by the way they play. They play so much different than we do. I've seen it where we talk so much about them that we play tentative," said Hitchcock. "We're going to go out, put our Canadian game right out front and, if you can play and beat us, great. We're not going to go and back up and worry about defending in certain areas. We'll play the game we've got on the ice and, if a team beats us at our game, then so be it. (Calgary Herald)

Forgive me for asking this, but when have Canadians ever said, "well if our best doesn't beat their best by default, so be it?" NEVER. IMO part of Canada's success in hockey is because we refuse to accept losing under any condition. There are some points that Hitchcock brings up that fills me with some hope:

"We've got two high-pressure lines and two lines that are really strong in the two-way game. We wanted to really identify everybody and give everybody a role."(Calgary Herald)

Thank god...

Team Canada World Hockey Championships 2008 - Looking ahead to the 2010 Olympics

2008-04-30T20:17:00.004-06:00

I know I've pounded on this point quite a bit lately, but this tournament is truly an audition of sorts for the 2010 games, this year more than others; it's in Canada, it's an Olympic qualifier, etc. We know that players understand the significance because we're seeing a lot more 'A' guys attend the tournament (although the numbers are growing every year).

To me, this presents an interesting philosophical problem which is going to crop up when naming the Canadian Olympic team:

Does Hockey Canada
a) Go with the formula that has brought a lot of success in the World Championships (and Juniors), defined by 'limited' talent and lines that have roles, with set 1-4 lines.

b) Go with the formula that worked in Salt Lake 2002 and 2004, that is, tremendous players with clearly defined roles

b) Go with the formula that failed miserably in Turin 2006, as defined by essentially putting together an all star team and rolling all four lines fairly evenly.

In 2002, with Gretzky on board, the philosophy was 'go with the best players at the time, regardless of role.' The idea was that 'the best' players can play any role. Lemieux was the undisputed leader, but the Kariya/Lemieux/Yzerman line didn't get significantly more ice time than the Gagne/Sakic/Iginla line. Niewendyk/Peca/Fleury was the closest thing Canada had to an energy line, and Smyth/Lindros/Nolan were the checking line. Notice the two centers per line on the Lindros and Peca lines. Also notice in 2006 though, Canada at least partitioned skill players, placing the Lemieuxs with Yzermans and the Pecas with Niewendyk. As much as I love Niewendyk, there is a clear pure skill distinction between him and Yzerman.

(Similar setups were generated in 2004, with Lemieux playing the lead and everyone else given at least an outline of what was expected, for instance, the DDT (Draper, Doan, Thornton) line was Canada's shutdown line).

In 2006 Canada put together a pure all-star team, but at least partially abandoned the 'best players at the time' philosophy. Despite having average at best seasons, guys like Todd Bertuzzi, Kris Draper, Bryan McCabe were named to the team. Each had a separate subtext; Todd Bertuzzi had/has undeniable talent, but got suspended, sat through a lockout without playing, and then was having an average year. Draper was named partially because of success with Team Canada both in the World Championships (2003, gold) and the World Cup (2004). But Draper simply wasn't having a good year (by comparison he had 24 goals in 67 games in 03-04 but only 10 in 82 games in 05-06). Bryan McCabe, as we all know, was scoring goals like a madman that year, but if anyone cared to watch him play they would've realized he was a PP specialist AT BEST and his defensive coverage and decision making was extremely poor most of the time. Chaos defenceman wouldn't even begin to describe what McCabe brought to the table, yet the Toronto media was simply clamoring for him to be included on the team.

Without a clear skill leader though, Canada seemed to have a lot of trouble identifying it's top line. Sure, Joe Sakic was the captain, and he's obviously a truly great player who's destined for the hall, and one of a very select group. But he's not supernatural the way Lemieux or Gretzky was. He didn't change the pace of the game by stepping on the ice. So this creates an undisputed number 1 line vacuum.

Here are the lines as best I remember them, I believe them to be pretty accurate though:

Iginla - Sakic - Draper
Nash - Thornton - Bertuzzi/Doan
Smyth - Lecavalier - St. Louis
Gagne - Richards - Heatley

Doan/Nash rotated variously on lines.

Can someone tell me who the number one line is? The checking line? What is the logic of these lines? Why is Draper grouped with Sakic etc? When Canada needed an emotional boost, who was sent on? (The answer is that it was usually Doan on the Lecavalier line or something like that). It's not hard to see why Canada had trouble with flow. Most of these guys were switched from playing 20+ minutes a night, to everyone playing about 15, give or take some special team time. There wasn't a whole lot of intensity generated, and nobody really got the ice time to step up and take control.

In the Worlds (both World Juniors and Men's) Canada has truly made an art of defining roles. I explain it in more detail here, but in general the formula tends to be pretty static.

Judging from HF, fans still tend to take the 'All-Star Team' approach, one I believe was a spectacular failure.

Judging by this Men's World roster, team Canada still tends to take the 'All-Star Team' approach, at least, as much as is possible in the World Championships.

Of course we still have Chimera and Meyers, (and as of the exhibition games Patrick Sharp is on that line), but we also have Staal, Spezza, and Gagner, Toews, and Roy and Kunitz. Staal and Spezza play a nearly identical game, Gagner and Toews are both skilled guys, and although Toews is superior defensively, he's not good enough to be a shutdown guy and he's not good enough to be in the top two lines. Roy could play on any line, while Kunitz is probably going to be limited to a 3rd or 4th line role.

Who is the number 1 center? Who is the shutdown?

With that in mind, here is my proposed (2 years out) Canadian Olympic team, along with my explanations of inclusions and exclusions.

Iginla - Crosby - Nash

This is my first line, and they will get 20+ minutes a night. Back in 1987, Canada had a very well defined role team in the Canada Cup, but even the lesser players were stars in their own right. Keenan took the team aside and got out a board, setting out the total number of icetime minutes that could be given out in a single game. Gretzky will get the most playing time Keenan declared, 20+ minutes. That means that everyone else will get less. And he went down the list of players, Lemieux, Messier. Gartner, Hawerchuk. Everyone understood who would be the horses.

This is my number one scoring line, all three possess above average individual skill in every facet of the game (board work, outside speed, incredible vision, ace level shot etc.), and each has played key roles and succeeded for Canada before.

Getzlaf - Lecavalier - St. Louis

This is my second scoring line. Lecavalier is arguably Canada's best center at the moment, and he's paired with a two way scoring threat in St. Louis (great on the PK or PP as well), in addition to the supremely skilled and also physical Ryan Getzlaf. Lecavalier was MVP for Canada in the World Cup, Getzlaf scored a huge one for Canada in the 2004 World Juniors. All three were huge for their team during their respective cup runs, and Lecavalier and St. Louis combined for 2/3 of Canada's most effective line in Turin 06 (the 3rd player was Ryan Smyth). According to Desjardins, Lecavalier and St. Louis play the highest quality of competition of all the forwards in this group.

Richards - Horcoff - Toews

This line is the two way specialty. Sean Horcoff is arguably the best two way player in the NHL, he's a master 5-5 and he is also pretty special on the PK. His shot has turned particularly devastating to goalies and his speed is brilliant. Jonathan Toews is already playing a very high level of competition (2nd highest forward with >40 games on his team behind Patrick Sharp) and I suspect after his rookie season that will increase. He's been asked to play a two way role for Canada before and his success with Canada and experience will serve him well on the biggest international stage. Brad Richards is probably the biggest question mark on this line, and it was between him and Eric Staal. I went with Richards due to his experience on the international level, but both players would be suitable for this role.

Morrow - Richards - Doan

This is my second utility line that can take on a variety of roles - need a emotional boost from physical play? Need a line to go out there, get it deep and grind? Want some crash and bang goals? Want some pretty goals? Want leadership? Want to shut down the other team's top line? This line can and will do it all. This is not Canada's most skilled line, but there is plenty of skill to be had, two of the players are captains of their respective teams (and Richards is on his way IMO), and the talent level is still exceptional.

13th forward: Joe Sakic/Ryan Smyth

Joe Sakic has expressed interest in attending this competition, and even if his best years have passed him by I would still support his inclusion on the team as long as he's playing hockey. 2002 proved to me the importance of great veterans on the team, because even if 2002 Lemieux wasn't as good as 1987 Lemieux, he still provided invaluable support to the younger players (and I'm sure some of the vets). He's been there before and won, which is more than can be said for the rest of this lineup (save Iginla).

If Joe Sakic isn't available I would fully support Ryan Smyth's inclusion. He is not the most talented available by any extent, but he is a very well respected veteran and maybe Canada's most experienced player on the international stage. His years and years of winning on team Canada have given him a credibility that most players can only dream of.

Neither of these 13th forwards needs to take a regular shift but can be slotted in any of the lines when needed.

Notable exclusions:
Jason Spezza - Spezza, in my opinion, has proven himself useful in only one role, that's as a setup man on a scoring line, and even then his playoff record the last two years has been less than stellar. I don't think there's enough ice time available for Spezza to be effective.

Dany Heatley - Everything said about Spezza, ditto for Heatley. He's also been pretty ineffective in best on best tournaments (2004, 2006).
Eric Staal - Staal is a great hockey player, but I think there are better players available for a scoring role. Brad Richards edged him out, but just barely, and I think if he can prove his defensive abilities he has a strong chance of making the team.

Daniel Briere - Briere is great and has been great for Canada, and I have a lot of hesitation about not finding a place for him, but there you go, simply too much depth for Briere's inclusion.

Joe Thornton - I considered Thornton's inclusion for a very long time, and keeping him off this team was more a matter of taste than anything. I think his playoffs this year has been at times great and at times very mediocre; he certainly doesn't look like Morrow, Richards/Richards, Iginla etc out there, he doesn't control the flow the same way those guys do. If he does make the team I would slot him in there as a third or fourth line guy with a very simply role: own the boards. Calgary fans saw his boardwork in the first round, and it was very effective. If he makes the team, reduce his role, simplify his game and he could be a real weapon.

Patrick Marleau - He's having a much better playoff than I ever expected him to and he went goal less for what, 4 straight games? As I've mentioned before, he's never been great for Canada. Simply too much depth to include him on the team.

Derek Roy - As much as I like him, I think he needs to carve out a niche to be placed on a team with as much skill as this team.

So there you have it, 2 years in advance I've thrown down the gauntlet. This tournament will be an interesting first step (test) for Vancouver 2010.

Thoughts?

Team Canada World Hockey Championships: The Dream Team

2008-04-24T17:54:00.007-06:00

Some more roster announcements today (some last night) from Hockey Canada; Edmonton Oilers' players Mathieu Garon and Sam Gagner were both announced as extras (Garon as the 3rd goalie and Sam Gagner as the 14th forward), a surprise to myself as I initially had them on the team, and when they weren't announced with Staios' addition I assumed they missed their chance. Nice to see both guys go, especially as an Oiler fan.

Now, also named were a couple of guys I hoped would stay home (damn their patriotism!) Both Dany Heatley and Jason Spezza were named to the team, and despite their embarrassing playoff performances, I truly hope they make me look like a fool for counting them out. Heatley has been very disappointing in recent team Canada outings (World Cup 2004, Turin 2006) but he has been absolutely terrific for Team Canada in the World Championships. His 2004 World Championship performance was particularly dominating, leading the tournament in goals and points, and winning tournament MVP en route to a gold medal.

Right now a concern of mine is ice time distribution. Who is the top line? This roster bosts Nash, Doan, St. Louis, Staal, Spezza, Heatley, Roy, and Getzlaf. Oh, and Jonathan Toews. Who is the 3rd line? What is everyone's role? I still feel the mentality of rolling 4 lines without any real roles was a massive issue in 2006 because all those players are used to 20+ minutes a game. This could become a real issue as the tournament roles on. A nice problem to have I guess, but a potential problem nonetheless. Is this a playoff roster, or an all star game roster?

As expected, Brett Burns and Dan Hamhuis were named to the team, as well as surprise addition Ed Jovanovski. Jovanovski is a guy who when he is on, he is ON. I feel that he's represented Canada very well and that he was missed in 2006, good on him for going. Flames fans should be very excited to see familiar face Mark Giordano was added as the 'extra' defenceman, (boy, glad we got rid of that loser!)

This makes for 6 defenceman, so I would expect one more will be named. I still would not be surprised to see Robyn Regehr, and his naming could be delayed as he undergoes physicals or mulls over the decision. Dion Phaneuf has turned the team down and that's ok because he's probably distracted with other things. I would be too.

Rounding out the group being named are Ryan Getzlaf and Chris Kunitz. I expect Kunitz will center Chimera and Meyers while Getlzaf will play on one of the top two lnes.

One thing I'll say about this team; It's probably the deepest and most talented group I've ever seen go over, that includes the 2005 edition with all the locked out NHLers. The defence is a bit unknown and a bit young, but on paper this is a hell of a team.

Doan - Staal - Nash
St. Louis - Spezza - Heatley
Chimera - Kunitz - Meyers
Toews - Roy - Whitney
Sharp
(Gagner)

Bouwmeester - Jovanovski
Hamhuis - Keith
Staios - Burns
(Giordano)

Ward
Leclaire
Garon

(mini update: There are some reports going around that Whitney has an ankle injury, so that might sort out the 13th forward issue we're seeing right now).

update #2 Friday 25 8:40am: Robyn Regehr will not be attending the IIHF World Championships. I'm 90% sure he wasn't even asked, which IMO is a massive oversight by team Canada. For shame.

update #3: Mike Green from the Washington Capitals has been added. I think a good choice, more than anything Green will be there for the PP and occasional even strength spot duty. He lead all defenceman in scoring this year with 18 goals.

Calgary Flames vs. San Jose Sharks - The Post Mortem

2008-04-23T20:28:00.004-06:00

I think Game 7 was the perfect microcosm of this Flames season; the Flames were over matched, they had a few steamboats (Iginla, Regehr, Nolan, Lombardi) a lot of inconsistency (Kipprusoff, Phaneuf) and a lot of anchors (Tanguay, Conroy, Eriksson).

While San Jose has had their share of problems this post season, they had a lot of guys step up that weren't expected to. Turns out that you can't stop Ryane Clowe, you can only contain him... and Jeremy Roenick, he's still alive? The reports of his death have been greatly exaggerated apparently.

To think that the Flames actually had a lead at one point of this game 7 is pretty unbelievable, especially considering the shot differential. Matt at BoA has been talking a lot about how odds eventually come into play into hockey games, players who get a lot of shots eventually tend to get a lot of goals, and teams that get a lot of shots do the same. San Jose's PP, which had been stagnant at times, came alive and buried the Flames. 2 PPGs plus one scored 25 seconds or so after the PK with Robyn Regehr out on forward. Game-set-match.

I know that I predicted the Flames to do even worse, and I was pleasantly surprised by their competitiveness, but this team should've had higher expectations. No first round victories in 3 years is simply not acceptable for this team. The Flames went 15 or so years in between 1st round victories: 1989 (beating Vancouver) to 2004 (beating Vancouver again). Flames fans have no desire to wait that long again.

Calgary now has a laundry list of off-season questions:

Mike Keenan: Stay or go?
There were a lot of things I liked about Mike Keenan - he appreciated the significance of line matching very well, he seemed to be surprisingly calm under fire, he definitely seemed to get good performances out of Iginla who had arguably his best season ever, and Dion Phaneuf who in my opinion made leaps and bounds of improvements this year.

On the other hand he made a lot of questionable roster moves, (Godard, Eriksson, Hale), made some very strange decisions in at least game 7 (why was Nystrom on right after that PK? was pulling Kiprusoff the best move in a 2 goal game?) and worst of all, he seemed to alienate some of the most useful players on the team. Miikka Kiprusoff had his worst season ever, and I find it hard to believe the correlation of Keenan and the path of destroyed goaltender confidence that follows him around is just a coincidence. Kiprusoff is the $8 million dollar man, Keenan has a one year contract, you do the math.

I firmly believe Kristian Huselius has the skill set to be a very useful hockey player - despite all the criticism he's taken, the benchings, etc. he still finished second on team scoring. Did Keenan rightfully expect more out of Huselius? Probably. But one sign of a good coach is selecting the right tool for the right job. Juice is a precision screwdriver, not a hammer. If you need a hammer, grab a hammer, don't use a screwdriver. I thought he was pretty effective playing on a line with Nolan and he showed us some of his best. He made some important plays in this series, and if I had the choice between Juice or Keenan, I would choose Juice.

What is the point of Conroy, Tanguay, Eriksson or Aucoin?
Poor Craig Conroy, I appreciate what he's done for this franchise, I really do, but this series was a very clear example of how far his usefulness as a player has dipped. He took a lot of penalties, many of them good ones to take, but I noticed the reason he took most of his penalties is he was simply out of position. Whether he's not thinking the game right or he just isn't quick enough doesn't matter. He just gets beat far too often and he doesn't contribute anything offensively.

Can somebody explain to me exactly what Tanguay's role is? He doesn't score, he can barely set up his teammates, he can't play physical, he isn't good defensively...what else is there? Tanguay is great at skating fast with the puck and giving it away. He got severely outplayed by a lot of players on the Flames and even more Sharks.

Eriksson is quite simply one of the worst defenceman in the National Hockey League. He's unpredictable defensively, he contributes nothing offensively. What is the point?

Adrian Aucoin gets eaten up by halfway decent competition, he's completely immobile, he's not a great decision maker, and that $4 million dollar shot wasn't exactly a revelation.

Oh, and special mention to Rhett Warrener; please man, just retire. You're too injured to even hit the ice, let alone play effectively. I wish you all the best.

Who get's resigned?
Calgary has 10 UFA's according to nhlnumbers.com. Of that group I would like to see back:
Owen Nolan - proved his value more so than ever in the playoffs.
Daymond Langkow - be smart with an offer to Langkow, don't go too high, but he is a good player.
Kristian Huselius - I don't think he'll garner a huge number on the open market and I believe he's a very strong 2nd liner. Provides depth.
David Hale - I think he's a very strong 3rd pairing defenceman. No offensive capabilities but you know what you're gonna get from him every night.
Curtis Joseph - a very good backup if he's offered the right price
Stephane Yelle - I think he's still got some game left in him. He can play a great 4th line role and his PK abilities are still respectable.

The rest of the UFAs can be let go as far as I'm concerned.
Craig Conroy Mark Smith Eric Godard Jim Vandermeer

That's all I've got for now, now leave me in my grief.

update: linky to MG's near mirror image thoughts at FHF

Team Canada World Hockey Championships 2008 - First Round All But Done

2008-04-21T21:25:00.005-06:00

Milan Lucic, Team Canada Captain, Super Series 2007

Now that the first round is virtually over there are a couple of standout players that I believe will get invites to the World Championships.

Its now a fact that Martin Brodeur has been invited to join the team, but it's yet to be seen whether he'll go. I think this is a win-win for Canada. Brodeur goes and the team gets a Hall of Fame goalie out for vengeance after his post-season blues, a man who will almost certainly backstop the Olympic team in 2010. If they don't get Brodeur they get two goalies who have had decent seasons, and one (Ward) who is in the running to have a big role in 2010 and therefore has something to prove.

There haven't been a lot of players named to the energy line, and I think Boston has a player that would fit the bill very nicely: Milan Lucic. Was Canada's captain in the Super Series with the intent of 'sending the Russians a message.' He plays a freaking mean game, and he can put the puck in the net on occasion. I think he'll get a long look.

Matt Cooke in Washington could help fill out that line as well. It depends on the outcome of game 7 but he's been to this tournament before, and he is a classic pest.

The Predators could really help Team Canada on defence by donating the services of Dan Hamhuis and Shea Weber. Hamhuis and Weber played in the tournament last year and are both very good defenceman. I think Brent Burns will get an invite from the team because of his strong play this year.

I would bet the Anaheim crew (Pronger, Neidermeyer, possibly Beauchemin), but I would bet they all turn the team down. Beauchemin didn't look that good and Pronger doesn't seem like the type of guy to play in a 'lesser tournament.'

If those three go that'll leave one more defenceman, and it's really anyone's guess as to who it could be. Chris Phillips is a guy that has been called a 'potential' Team Canada blueliner for years, Mike Green or Braydon Coburn could go depending on which team loses, and one of Brian Campbell or Dion Phaneuf could be a huge boon for Team Canada. Robyn Regehr has been simply outstanding and could probably step in as Canada's best defensive defenceman.

The Sharks/Flames outcome could have a profound effect on Team Canada. Jarome Iginla has probably been the best player in the entire ice surface these playoffs, and he might be willing to travel to Quebec to play, especially if Martin Brodeur goes. Iginla has traditionally shyed off this tournament in recent years, but I think this particular year has special meaning and greater convenience. Thornton is the guy to ask on the Sharks. Right now I don't think he's good enough to make the Olympic team on the top two scoring lines, and he might have to settle for a grinding role much like he had in the 2004 World Cup of Hockey. This could be a chance for him to prove his usefulness.

We're only a week and half away from the Tournament opener, and this team will take shape sooner rather than later.

Calgary Flames vs. San Jose Sharks: Anything Can Happen

2008-04-20T21:17:00.009-06:00

Well, we just saw the Flames put in their best 60 minute effort of the series and perhaps we've finally seen a glimpse of the type of hockey this team can play. IMO there were a couple key things tonight that precipitated the win.

1. Keenan played a terrific matchup game. He used the Regehr/Sarich pairing to perfection against the Thornton line, he made sure the Nystrom/Primeau/Moss line was up against the soft opposition.

2. Guys stepping up. Anders Eriksson played maybe the best game I've seen him play, David Moss played his role to perfection (except that forgettable 3-1 which he overcomplicated), I think Kristian Huselius played a very good game, and lastly, Miikka Kiprusoff with the shutout.

3. Matthew Lombardi continues his defensive effectiveness. He CANNOT seem to convert his chances but he's just doing everything else so well. Another couple blocked shots tonight, making a lot of good decisions out there in general. I feel very comfortable with his play.

4. Owen Nolan has been about as clutch a player as the Flames have had this postseason. We've seen by far his best efforts this season and he now has 2 game winners this series, a pretty impressive feat. MG has validly questioned Nolan's 2nd line presence, but there's no doubt right now Nolan's earning it.

A valid question on the fan 960 after the game; Are the Flames this good or did the Sharks play this bad?

Is this not the closest series you've ever seen? Every game a 1 goal difference except for each team's 2-0 shutout victory.

Might not get a chance to comment on G7 with my current schedule, so I'll just say this. It's game 7, anything can happen.

Go Flames!!

Team Canada World Championships 2008 - Nash May Miss Some Games

2008-04-16T20:58:00.005-06:00

Just a news link here to keep everyone posted, Nash had some throat surgery, may miss a few games, may not.

Also a couple of roster notes just watching the 1st round winding down:

-I don't see Spezza or Heatley being invited. They're either injured or just ineffective, either way I don't know why Team Canada would want them.

-Martin Brodeur may be available. New Jersey looks done and the tournament is in Quebec city. He's not playing great right now, but he's still Martin Brodeur.

- The Philly/Washington series could be a real boone for Team Canada. On one hand Canada could have quite the offensive defenceman in Mike Green, on the other hand they get an amazing two way center in Mike Richards, a true competitor for a spot on the 2010 team (I think the frontrunners are Horcoff, Richards and Brind'Amour). He'll be game to go if Philly loses.

- Matt Stajan has been told to be prepared to go, his participation will depend on how the first round turns out

- If Boston loses this series, can Canada afford to NOT ask Marc Savard? He's not your typical Team Canada guy and his attitude has been questioned often, but he keeps looking better and better and his playoff performance has been impressive.

You Win Some, You Lose Some

2008-04-16T19:57:00.004-06:00

A lot of thoughts keep running through my head after last night's game, they're scattered but I'll do my best.

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RudyKelly was pretty prophetic with his tirade against Thornton bashers. I partially agree with him; for some reason 'showing emotion' usually means losing composure, and that's not really a great leadership quality. Some guys lead by yelling and breaking teeth, some lead by playing smart hockey. I don't think there's one right way. Joe Thornton's play at the end of the game, domination along the boards leading to good puck possession and movement lead directly to the goal which he tipped in. He did it all. He can't be that good all the time, and it's unreasonable to have that expectation. IMO his linemates aren't that great and sometimes it's hard to soar with the eagles when you fly with turkeys.

-----

Calgary did just about everything right in the first period - scored a goal, kept the opposition chances to a minimum, played with speed. The 2nd and third period were different stories, despite tying San Jose in the 2nd, the Flames were starting to get overwhelmed. Craig Conroy takes yet another stupid penalty, the Sharks tie it up. The third was even worse - it was white knuckle hockey at it's best, or worst. The Shark's 2nd goal was a bit lucky, but one hell of a shot by Cheechoo.

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I commented to a co-worker today that the Flames 'almost won.' He said to me, the Flames didn't almost win, they almost didn't lose. Couldn't have said it better myself - on Sunday night after the Sharks started to see the Flames come back, they played to not lose. Same with the Flames last night.

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The little things played a big part in this game, here's a few plays that I couldn't help but notice.

1) Craig Conroy, offensive zone hook. That penalty lead to the Sharks first goal. I know the Flames pulled ahead soon after, but a goal is a goal. Some penalties are legit to take, some are just stupid. This was just stupid.

2) In the third period the puck slides through the Flames crease; Miikka Kipprusoff puts his glove on it and slides his glove across the crease as he is poked and prodded. Eventually he realizes the referees are not going to blow the whistle (who knows why) so he plays it behind the net. The Flames cannot regain control and are forced to take a penalty. The Sharks don't score, but that's an extra 2 minutes down a man that the Flames could have pressured San Jose and maybe created some chances.

3) Kristian Huselius goes in on a 3-1 with Iginla and Langkow. He messes up the pass to Iginla, but recovers behind the net and centers a pass to Langkow who proceeds to hit th post. Both Huselius and Langkow believed it was in (it wasn't) and stopped playing. That could have put the dagger in San Jose's heart. Score that and the Flames more than likely win the series. Miss and you give the Sharks a chance to get back into it. Flames missed, the Sharks get back into it.

4) With about a minute to go in the game Huselius ices the puck; Iginla almost beats it out but apparently does not. Keenan knows the players out on the ice are tired but decides not to call a time out. It's easy to say it was the right call now, but it really was the right call, especially the way the Flames were panicking. Another subtle mistake by Keenan, having Huselius out there with just over a minute to go. I can forgive the Phaneuf /Hale pairing becausee Keenan was probably hoping that they could come off and Sarich/Regehr (the appropriate last minute pairing) would come on; I mean, you do need to put SOMEONE on the ice, and Phaneuf and Hale are probably the second best defensively (I would certainly put them both ahead of Aucoin and Vandermeer) but it really was the difference. Phaneuf obviously couldn't handle Thornton, possibly because of fatigue, possibly due to lack of ability, but quite simply put, he couldn't get the job done.

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This was the second time the Sharks scored a last minute goal this series because of poor bench management.

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Still, I remain pleasantly suprised by the Flames overall competitiveness. Excuse me for predicting a couple losses in a row to finish off the season, but in general it hasn't been as excrutiating as last year.

All Killer, No Filler

2008-04-14T17:12:00.001-06:00

I couldn't help myself.

Three Words

2008-04-13T23:51:00.002-06:00

Cory - FUCKING - Sarich.

Enough said.